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Thursday January 18, 2007 - 09:43:37 GMT
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ACM - www.ac-markets.com
Bank of Japan keeps rates unchanged at 0.25%.
By Jean-Claude Braha - ACM Senior Trader
Yesterdays News and Events:
The Dollar eased on Wednesday after a solid batch of US economic data which helped expectations the Federal Reserve would keep interest rates steady for some time. This is fully anticipated in interest rates futures market, but analysts are still uncertain about a rate cut before the third quarter. US core Producer Price Index was stronger than expected 0.2% vs 0.1%. US Industrial output expanded more than expected helped by robust increases in manufacturing and mining at 0.4% vs -0.1% revised. Some analysts also said the rebound in oil prices at 52.24 as a result of cooler weather may also have weighed on the Dollar. The UsdJpy rise to a 13-month high this morning as the Bank of Japan kept interest rates steady as lately expected. The BoJ held rates at 0.25% in a 6-3 vote without issuing any statement, confirming a big shift in expectations in the past two days. UsdJpy rose 0.5% to 121.34 this morning. GbpJpy jumped higher 0.9% at 239.77, the highest since August 1998, and EurJpy is 0.75% to 157.31.
Todays Key Issues:
BoJ keeps rates on hold at 0.25%. CHF November Adjusted real Retail Sales due at 8:15 GMT is expected 1.8% vs 0.6%. CHF January ZEW Survey due at 10:00 GMT previously -23.7. Are due at 13:30 GMT; CAD November international Securities Transaction expected CAD -2.15B vs -5B, Manufacturing Shipments expected 0.9% vs -0.1% (MoM). Are due at 13:30 GMT; US December Consumer Price Index expected 0.5% vs 0% (MoM) and 2.5% vs 2% (YoY), CPI ex-food & energy expected 0.2% vs 0% (MoM) and 2.7% vs 2.6% (YoY). US December housing Starts due at 13:30 expected 1560k vs 1588k and Building Permits 1524k vs 1506k. CAD Bank of Canada Releases Monetary Policy report Update is due at 15:30 GMT. NZD November Retail Sales due at 21:45 GMT is expected -0.1% vs 0.3%.
The Risk Today:
EurUsd remains heavy, even having recovered from the 1.2866 last week trend low, holding well below 1.3050 resistance. Only a move above there would jeopardize the case for a run through 1.2866 and toward 1.2820 (61.8 retracement of the 1.2483-1.3368 rise). UsdChf's recent pullback from 1.2534 is now just holding above supports 1.2430 and 1.2400, keeping the underlying bull trend intact. An eventual move above 1.2540 would reinstate the bull trend for a push above the 1.2585. GbpUsd continues to climb and is approaching the next strong resistance at 1.9753. A break of this level would expose 1.9850. Initial support is at 1.9750. UsdJpy continues to post new trend high's and the focus is now on the key resistance at 121.40, Dec 2005 high. A break of this level would represent a significant bullish development; support this morning is at 120.06, Monday low.
Resistance and Support:
|EURUSD ||GBPUSD ||USDJPY ||USDCHF |
|1.3130 P ||2.0000 T ||122.15 S ||1.2770 T |
|1.3050 S ||1.9850 P ||121.88 S ||1.2585 M |
|1.2980 K ||1.9753 S ||121.40 T ||1.2540 S |
|1.2965 ||1.9750 ||121.30 ||1.2460 |
|1.2900 T ||1.9570 S ||119.90 T ||1.2430 K |
|1.2820 S ||1.9428 M ||118.00 P ||1.2400 M |
|1.2771 S ||1.9315 S ||117.44 S ||1.2220 S |
|S: Strong, M: Minor, T: Trendline, K: Keylevel, P: Pivot |
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