Friday January 19, 2007 - 04:23:14 GMT
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FX-Strategy - www.fx-strategy.com
Daily Analysis for EURUSD
Resistance: 1.2988 ... 1.3022 ... 1.3048 ... 1.3081
Support: 1.2935 ... 1.2896 ... 1.2865 ... 1.2830
While 1.2932-41 supports we look for additional gains to 1.3081-92
The dip back to 1.1896 was not anticipated but the subsequent recovery still causes us to retain a bullish stance. The 1.2986-92 area should cap initially but while the pullback remains above 1.2932-41 we will look for a break above the 1.2986-92 resistance to take us through 1.3022 and onto 1.3081-92. Care here as this may hold. Only above extends to 1.3131 before lower again.
While 1.2835-65 supports we will look for a move up to 1.3022 at least and probably 1.3081. However, this should cap. Only above 1.3131 would cause a stronger move higher. (January 16th)
While the dip back to 1.2897 was not expected, with it holding we retain a bullish stance. Thus to revert to a bearish scenario we require a break back below 1.2932 which should then push through to 1.2896 and 1.2865 en route 1.2832 at least. Care here. Only breach extends further to 1.2805 and then the 1.2761-77 area.
While we still feel there are losses to come, the immediate downside looks limited. Thus only a quick break below 1.2865-96 would cause a retest of the 1.2761 corrective low â€“ then lower. (January 19th)
ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS
The dip to 1.2897 is not one we feel 100% comfortable with but overall we still feel the cyclic and wave pictures still point to gains. Thus we expect a minimum test of the 1.3022 level implied by the alternative wave count that would mean a 50% pullback in Wave iv. More likely we feel this correction should move to the 50% Wave [b] retracement at 1.3081 â€“ and at the most the 61.8% retracement at 1.3131.
The second dip to 1.2897 looks more like a flat correction in a Wave x position. We see the new Wave a ending around 1.2986-90 area and while Wave b remains above the 50%-61.8% retracement at 1.2932-41 we will look for the move to the 50% retracement in Wave [b] at 1.3081.
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