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Monday January 22, 2007 - 02:34:51 GMT
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Daily Analysis for USDCHF
Resistance: 1.2505 ... 1.2550 ... 1.2586 ... 1.2612
Support: 1.2445 ... 1.2430 ... 1.2394 ... 1.2371
Bias: While 1.2500-10 caps we remain bearish for loss of 1.2445 for 1.2371-94 at least
Daily Bullish: The wave structure remains very choppy but overall we still feel this is slightly more biased to the downside. Thus for the upside to see an additional high we need a break first above 1.2500-10 which would then trigger a test of the 1.2546-55 area. Care advised here as this could cap. Only above sees follow-through to 1.2586 and if this breaks then expect 1.2653.
MT Bullish: While a test of 1.2537-55 was not really expected it has held and only above here extends to 1.2653 en route the 1.2769 high. (January 19th)
Daily Bearish: The pullback from the 1.2445-50 area was slightly deeper than anticipated but overall we feel the structure still looks more bearish. We would like to see the 1.2500-10 area cap and for a break below 1.2445-50 to extend losses to 1.2430 minimum and probably down to the 1.2371-94 area which stands a good chance of holding on first test. Next support is at 1.2313-31.
MT Bearish: We have seen the 1.2537-55 resistance tested and while it holds we still feel the risk is lower in a correction that should move below 1.2398 to 1.2331 at least. An ideal target is 1.2264-70. (January 19th)
ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS
The expanded flat scenario looks unlikely and therefore we center our attention on the possibility at 1.2546 completed Wave â€“iii- and thus we can now see Wave â€“iv- develop with a 38.2%-41.4% retracement at 1.2313-31, while the full 50% retracement is at 1.2264 where there is a strong pivot support.
We require breach of 1.2445-50 to confirm.
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