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Monday January 22, 2007 - 10:06:15 GMT
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ACM - www.ac-markets.com
Dollar was little changed as the six-week rally slow down.
By Jean-Claude Braha - ACM Senior Trader
Yesterdays News and Events:
The Dollar ended little changed on Friday, giving up on early gains seen after a stronger-than-expected US Consumer Sentiment report, as trader sold the currency because the six-week rally began to slow. A surprising strong University of Michigan survey of US Consumer Sentiment ended the globally bullish week of solid US economic data, which confirmed expectations that the Federal Reserve wonâ€™t cut US interest rates any time soon. The University of Michigan confidence index jumped to 98.0 in January, from 91.7, well above the consensus of 92.2. This rise was driven by improvements in both the Expectations Index, which picked up to 88.7 from 81.2, and the Current Conditions Index, which rose to 112.5 from 108.1. Consumers are likely to have been encouraged by the continuing strength of the labour market and apparent stabilisation of the housing market. Other than US economic data and Federal Reserve comments; dealers and analysts were still focused on the Yen. Analysts said further weakness was likely as the Bank of Japan left interest rates unchanged at 0.25%. This has given investors renewed reasons to hold carry trades. EurUsd was flat to slightly up at 1.2957. The UsdChf and GbpUsd were also nearly unchanged at respectively 1.2484 and 1.9737. EurJpy was flat at 157.09 having hit intraday a high of 157.69, not far from record peak 158.06 this month.
Todays Key Issues:
German December Producer Prices due at 7:00 GMT is unchanged at 0% (MoM) and +4.4% vs 4.7% (YoY). CHF December Producer & Import Prices due at 8:15 GMT is unchanged at 0% (MoM) and 2.7% vs 2.8% (YoY). ECBâ€™ Quaden and Gaspari speak at Conference at 11:00 GMT. US December Leading Indicators due at 15:00 GMT is expected 0.2% vs 0.1%. US Fedâ€™s Yellen speaks in Reno on Economy at 20:20 GMT.
The Risk Today:
EurUsd maintains a heavy tone, consolidating well below the 1.3050 resistance. Only a move above there would jeopardize the case for a run toward 1.2820 (61.8% retracement of the 1.2483-1.3368 rise). UsdChf's recent pullback from last Thursday's 1.2548 high is thus far holding above supports a.2430 and 1.2400. This keeps the underlying bull trend intact, and an eventual move above the current trend high at 1.2548 would expose the 1.2585 last Nov high. GbpUsd continues to climb, recently testing and pushing through the early Jan high of 1.9753. This would open the door to 1.9850. Initial support is at 1.9570 last week low. UsdJpy pushed to a new trend high beyond key resistance at 121.40 but couldnâ€™t make a clear break up. The subsequent pullback from last Thursday's high at 121.60 has been corrective in nature and will likely hold above initial support 120.50. A move above 121.60 would expose a measured target at 123.25, where the rise from 118 would equal the distance made in the 114.40-119.70 rise.
Resistance and Support:
|EURUSD ||GBPUSD ||USDJPY ||USDCHF |
|1.3130 P ||2.0000 T ||123.25 K ||1.2770 T |
|1.3050 S ||1.9850 P ||122.15 S ||1.2585 M |
|1.2980 K ||1.9753 S ||121.40 T ||1.2540 S |
|1.2970 ||1.9740 ||121.35 ||1.2485 |
|1.2900 T ||1.9570 S ||119.90 T ||1.2430 K |
|1.2820 S ||1.9428 M ||118.00 P ||1.2400 M |
|1.2771 S ||1.9315 S ||117.44 S ||1.2220 S |
|S: Strong, M: Minor, T: Trendline, K: Keylevel, P: Pivot |
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