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Monday January 22, 2007 - 12:10:49 GMT
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Forex: Mellon FX Daily - U.S. Edition

Mellon FX Daily
06:00 EST Thursday, January 22, 2007

Key Points
• JPY soft after Nakagawa comments, but key levels hold for now. CPI features this week.
• EUR-USD vulnerability remains in place given positive US news flow.
• GBP waiting for Wednesday’s MPC minutes.
• Quiet week for US releases.

Market Outlook

The JPY has been reasonably soft overnight with most crosses close to recent highs and USD-JPY settling comfortably above 121. There is no fresh news as such, although LDP secretary– general Nakagawa called for the establishment of a framework that would allow the BoJ to align its policy goals with those of the government ahead of policy decisions. What he envisages is not exactly clear – the BoJ meeting with the government beforehand to take its views to heart? – although it will not help to soften fears of political interference in the monetary policy process and this is not good for the world’s second largest economy. This week’s CPI data (Friday) could be significant for JPY sentiment and key JPY levels may hold out until then, although we still see more JPY weakness eventually. Key levels include 121.88 on USD-JPY, 158.05 on EUR-JPY and 240 (briefly surpassed this morning) on GBP-JPY. The latter is the most vulnerable in current circumstances.

EUR-USD continues to show a lack of direction, staying well inside the key parameters at 1.2865 (recent low and potential base support) and 1.3050 (the recent breakout point on the downside). The positional backdrop has improved a little on the basis of the latest IMM data. As of last Tuesday net spec long EUR-USD positioning stood at 53,542 contracts, down from 75,172 on January 9. However, this is still a fairly sizeable position and with the news flow on US data currently fairly positive there remains some risk on the downside. This week is a quiet one for data and events (see below for US), although German IFO, German consumer confidence and Eurozone money data may have a modest influence.

GBP remains generally firm on the basis of recent strong data releases and EUR-GBP will need to get back above 0.6607 to generate expectations of some corrective activity. MPC minutes will be key this week and the market will be looking for the extent of any vote split, indications about the likely need for future tightening and the general breadth and depth of any anti-inflation rhetoric that is advanced. EUR-GBP support is at 0.6545 and is starting to look more vulnerable, unless some negative news appears.

Day Ahead
US – not a lot to focus on today, with just leading indicators and a speech by the Fed’s Yellen scheduled. In fact, it is a quiet week, with existing home sales (Thursday) and new home sales and durable orders (both Friday) the main features. Weekly mortgage applications data on Wednesday will also be closely monitored. While they continue to show volatility on a week-to-week basis, they are still well above the levels seen for much of 2006. Today’s events are unlikely to have much impact.

Diary
Data/event EDT Consensus*

US Lead indicators (Dec) m/m 10.00 +0.2%
US Fed’s Yellen spks on econ 15.20

Latest data Actual Consensus*
GB Rightmove house prices (Jan) y/y +13.5% +13% last
AU PPI output (Q4) q/q +0.2% +1.0%
AU PPI output (Q4) y/y +3.5% +4.0%
DE PPI (Dec) y/y +4.4% +4.5%
* Consensus unless stated

2005, Mellon Financial Corporation Note: Although obtained from sources believed by us to be reliable, Mellon Financial Corporation and its affiliates cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information upon which this report is based. This report does not purport to disclose the risks or benefits of entering into particular transactions and should not be construed as advice in any specific instance. The views in this report constitute our judgement as of this date and are subject to change without notice.
Ian Gunner 44 20 7163 5996 06.40 EDT Monday May 31 2005

 

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EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Free Forex Database updated




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