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Monday January 22, 2007 - 20:45:06 GMT
Westpac Institutional Bank - www.westpac.co.nz

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Forex: Westpac Institutional Bank Morning Report

New Zealand Dollar NZD briefly through 0.7000
The NZD traded in a very tight 15 point range throughout the day due to the public holiday in Wellington. Overnight the currency pair broke out of its all too familiar range to post a three week high of 0.7008. The catalyst for this sharp move higher was real money accounts bidding and continued selling of the AUD/NZD cross after the below forecast Australian Q4 PPI data. However NZD failed to hold onto this level as it ran into a wall of offers and consequently dropped back below 0.7000.

Australian Dollar: AUD rangebound ahead of CPI
A quiet start to what is shaping up to be quite an important week with CPI due out on Wed. The AUD was rangebound throughout the day with the market largely ignoring the slightly weaker-than- expected PPI data, although buying interest out of Tokyo continued to support the currency above 0.7880 for much of the day. Overnight AUD traded in a similar range firstly testing 0.7900 then retreating to finish the session on its lows as selling of the AUD/NZD cross picked up pace.

Major Currencies: Yen slips to four-year lows against USD
The USD traded in subdued ranges against most major currencies on Monday but managed to rally against a weak Japanese yen. Speculation that the Bank of Japan was increasing local interest rates has been quashed over recent days and the market has been largely pricing out any near-term monetary policy tightening. The resultant yen weakness helped USD/JPY rally to 121.80 yesterday, a high since early 2003. The euro also benefited with EUR/JPY rallying to 157.65, within reach of all-time highs at 158.05. There was little offshore data overnight so other major currencies kept to tight ranges against the USD: the euro traded around 1.2950; Sterling traded quietly but managed to hit a six week high at 1.9788 and opens today at 1.9770.

No US data. The Dec leading index was on the schedule, but it
has been delayed 24 hours for technical reasons.

UK house prices up 13.5% yr in Jan. The Rightmove index has accelerated back to a pace last seen in 2004.

Events Today
Date Country Release Last Forecast
23 Jan Aust Dec NAB Business Survey 14 n/f
US Jan Richmond Fed Index –6 2
Jpn Bank of Japan Minutes
Eur Nov Industrial Orders –0.6 0.8%
UK Jan CBI Industrial Trends Survey 11 8
Can Dec CPI %yr 1.4% 1.6%
Dec CPI Core Ex 8 %yr 2.2% 2.2%
Nov Retail Sales –0.7% 1.0%
Dec Leading Index 0.5% 0.4%
24 Jan Aust Q4 Headline CPI 0.9% 0.2%
Q4 Avg RBA Core CPI 0.8% 0.8%
Jpn Nov All-Industry Activity Index 1.7% –0.2%

Latest Research papers/Publication
• NZ inflation expectations (18 January)
• RBNZ OCR Preview (17 January)
• NZ Q4 CPI Review (17 January)
• NZ Q4 QSBO Review (16 January)
• NZ Weekly Forex Outlook (15 January)
• NZ Q4 CPI Preview (11 January)
• NZ Q4 Employment Confidence Index (10 January)
• NZ Q3 GDP Review (21 December)
• NZ Q3 Current Account Review (20 December)
• NZ Q4 Consumer Confidence (20 December)
These papers/publications are available on Online Research on Westpac
Institutional Bank’s website (www.wib.westpac.co.nz)

Westpac Banking Corporation ABN 33 007 457 141 incorporated in Australia (NZ division). Information current as at 24 May 2005. All customers please note that this information has been prepared without taking account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Because of this you should, before acting on this information, consider its appropriateness, having regard to your objectives, financial situation or needs. Australian customers can obtain Westpac's financial services guide by calling +612 9284 8372, visiting www.westpac.com.au or visiting any Westpac Branch. The information may contain material provided directly by third parties, and while such material is published with permission, Westpac accepts no responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of any such material. Except where contrary to law, Westpac intends by this notice to exclude liability for the information. The information is subject to change without notice and Westpac is under no obligation to update the information or correct any inaccuracy which may become apparent at a later date. Westpac Banking Corporation is regulated for the conduct of investment business in the United Kingdom by the Financial Services Authority. © 2004 Westpac Banking Corporation. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. The forecasts given in this document are predictive in character. Whilst every effort has been taken to ensure that the assumptions on which the forecasts are based are reasonable, the forecasts may be affected by incorrect assumptions or by known or unknown risks and uncertainties. The ultimate outcomes may differ substantially from these forecasts.

 

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Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

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12:30 US- Housing Starts & Permits
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Fri 20 Oct
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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue-- 08:30 GMT GB- CPI top tier confirmation of Inflation.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT DE- ZEW Survey second most important German monthly Survey.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT EZ- final HICP revision to flash report. Revisions are usually minor.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 13:15 GMT US- Industrial Production. Top output indicator.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 12:30 GMT US- Housing Starts and Permits revision to flash report. Useful housing leading indicator.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 14:30 GMT US- EIA Crude. Top WTI inventory measure.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 01:30 GMT AU- Employment. Top economic indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 02:00 GMT CN- GDP. Top economic indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Thu-- 08:30 GMT GB- Retail Sales. Top consumption indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 12:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless. Employment Indicator.



John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

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