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Tuesday January 23, 2007 - 09:58:34 GMT
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ACM - www.ac-markets.com
Yen drops across the board on concern of wide interest rates spreads.
By Jean-Claude Braha - ACM Senior Trader
Yesterdays News and Events:
The Yen dropped across the board on Monday as investors sold the currency anticipating that Japanâ€™s wide interest rate gap against other major currencies may be unlikely to contract any time soon. Demand for the Dollar was boosted last week by favourable economic data that reinforced expectations for steady USD rates at 5.25% in the next month. UsdJpy extended gains after traders took out stop-loss order at around 121.50. UsdJpy was up 0.32% at 121.63 after new high peak of 121.80, just a step away from the 4-year high 121.88. EurJpy was firm up 0.3% to 157.51 targeting latest high 158.06 made early this month. EurUsd consolidated at 1.2949, still in a comfortable trading range, in absence of any major economic data. UsdCad was Monday biggest mover and rose 0.7% to 1.1810. This move was fully related to US Crude Oil which was down 86cts at $51.13, after having risen above $53 earlier in the session.
Todays Key Issues:
Euro-Zone November Industrial New Orders due at 10:00 GMT is expected 1.1% to -0.6% (MoM) and 5.7% vs 12.5% (YoY). GB CBI January Industrial Trends due at 11:00 GMT; total Orders expected -5 unchanged, Export Orders expected -8 vs -5. Are due at 12:00 GMT; CAD December Consumer Price Index expected 0.2% unchanged (MoM) and 1.6% vs 1.4% (YoY) and Bank of Canada CPI core expected 0.1% vs 0.3% (MoM) and 2.3% vs 2.2% (YoY). Are due at 13:30 GMT; CAD November Retail Sales expected 0.8% vs -0.7% (MoM) and December Leading Indicators expected 0.4% vs 0.5% (MoM). US January Redbook due at 13:55 GTM was previously 1.5%. Are due at 15:00 GMT; US December Leading Indicators due at 15:00 GMT is expected 0.2% vs 0.1% and January Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index previously -6.
The Risk Today:
EurUsd maintains a heavy tone, consolidating well below the 1.3050 resistance. Only a move above there would jeopardize the case for a run toward 1.2820 (61.8% retracement of the 1.2483-1.3368 rise). UsdChf holds above supports 1.2430 and 1.2400. This keeps the underlying bull trend intact, and an eventual move above the current trend high at 1.2548 would expose the 1.2585 last Nov high. GbpUsd continues to climb breaking up 1.9753 former resistance and is focusing on pivot resistance 1.9850. Initial supports are 1.9635 last Thursday low and 1.9570 last week low. UsdJpy bull trend is still intact, looking for a break above 122.15 and 122.40 (61.8% retracement of the 135.18-101.67 multi-year decline). Further JPY weakness would expose next level, measured target at 123.25 where the rise from 118 would equal the distance made in the 114.40-119.70 rise.
Resistance and Support:
|EURUSD ||GBPUSD ||USDJPY ||USDCHF |
|1.3130 P ||2.0100 T ||123.25 K ||1.2770 T |
|1.3050 S ||2.0000 T ||122.15 S ||1.2585 M |
|1.2980 K ||1.9850 P ||121.40 T ||1.2540 S |
|1.2980 ||1.9830 ||121.40 ||1.2460 |
|1.2900 T ||1.9753 M ||119.90 T ||1.2430 K |
|1.2820 S ||1.9570 S ||118.00 P ||1.2400 M |
|1.2771 S ||1.9315 S ||117.44 S ||1.2220 S |
|S: Strong, M: Minor, T: Trendline, K: Keylevel, P: Pivot |
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