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Tuesday January 23, 2007 - 11:58:55 GMT
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Forex: Mellon FX Daily - U.S. Edition

Mellon FX Daily
06:35 EST Tuesday, January 23, 2007

Key Points
• GBP remains firm – JPY weak.
• EUR-USD moves higher – USD weak on Iranian anxieties.
• Canada CPI/retail sales, BoE’s King speech, Australian CPI feature.

Market Outlook

The JPY has remained weak through Asian and European sessions, although the USD has also lost ground against a number of currencies. It is just a case of more of the same as far as the JPY is concerned, with the cementing of the JPY’s low yield status a continuing negative. USD-JPY is slightly constrained by the 2003 high of 121.88, although upside risk is in place. EUR-JPY briefly touched a fresh high of 158.08 and would target towards 160 if a close can be recorded above 158.05. AUD-JPY and NZD-JPY have also made new highs. Friday’s Japanese CPI is the next big event for the JPY. The USD weakness is due in part to nervousness about the situation with regard to Iran. An Arab media story suggested that a US military strike in Iran could occur by April, while there were also reports that US and Iraqi forces had raided the Iranian embassy in Baghdad, although an embassy official later denied this according to Reuters.

EUR-USD moved as high as 1.3022, although 1.3050 needs to break to suggest that recent corrective pressure has passed. Below 1.2865 is needed to suggest a continuation of such downside risk. Range trading is favoured in the next couple of ndays and overall risk remains to the downside.

Cable briefly ran up to 1.9860 (above the 1.9847 high from December 1) and if a close can be secured up there it would open the way for a test close to 2.00, which could become something of a magnet in the short-term. GBP-JPY broke through 240 yesterday and this morning briefly rose above the 240.96 high from August 1998. Indeed, that was an intra-day high, with yesterday being the first time GBP-JPY has closed above 240 since 1992. 250 (high from 1992) is the next technical level of significance. EUR-GBP did fall below support at 0.6545 early in today’s Asian session, but managed to stabilise following the lead of EUR-USD.

The UK CBI manufacturing survey this morning was slightly mixed. In the monthly survey, the orders balance slipped back to -9 from -5 and output expectations rose to +12 from +11. The quarterly survey showed the balance on general business optimism rising to -7 from -10. However, the monthly price expectations balance rose to +19 from +8 in December, equalling the +19 highs seen in November 2006 and January 2005. +19 has not been exceeded on this category since Q1 1995. Inflation fears will remain in place on this basis. BoE governor King speaks today, although something negative may be required from tomorrow’s MPC minutes to remove the immediate threat of further GBP advances.

Day Ahead
Canada – CPI and retail sales are due and the latter will be the main focal point to see whether there has been any stabilization after the weakness recorded in recent months. The BoC’s measure of core CPI has been edging higher in the latter part of 2006, although at +2.2%/+2.3% it is not too far away from their 2% target and well within the 1%-3% target range. A move above 2.5% will be needed to cause an element of discomfort. Upside risk on USD-CAD while above 1.1800.

Australia – Q4 CPI data due this evening is unlikely to be weak enough to prevent a Feb rate hike. Recent data suggests strong labour market momentum and this will maintain the medium-term inflation threat. A key focus in tonight’s release will be the core measures of inflation, which are expected to move slightly higher. The AUD should be well supported (as a high-yielder) as long as the JPY remains soft.

Data/event EDT Consensus*

CA CPI (Dec) y/y 07.00 +1.7%
CA BoC core CPI (Dec) y/y 07.00 +2.3%
US Chain store sls (w/e Jan 20) w/w 07.45 0.0% last
CA Retail sales (Nov) m/m 08.30 +0.6%
CA Retail sales ex-autos (Nov) m/m 08.30 +0.4%
CA Leading indicator (Dec) m/m 08.30 +0.5% last
US Redbook sls (w/e Jan 20) m/m 08.55 +1.5% last
US Lead indicators (Dec) m/m 10.00 +0.2%
GB BoE’s King speaks 14.00
US ABC consumer conf (w/e Jan 21) 17.00 -2 last
JP All-industry index (Nov) m/m 18.50
AU CPI (Q4) q/q 19.30 +0.2%
AU CPI (Q4) y/y 19.30 +3.6%
AU CPI mkt prices ex-volatile (Q4) y/y 19.30 +2.3%
AU CPI-RBA trimmed-mean (Q4) y/y 19.30 +3.1%

Latest data Actual Consensus*
FR H’hold consumption (Dec) m/m +1.3% +0.3%
EU Manu orders (Nov) m/m +1.4% +1.1%
* Consensus unless stated

2005, Mellon Financial Corporation Note: Although obtained from sources believed by us to be reliable, Mellon Financial Corporation and its affiliates cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information upon which this report is based. This report does not purport to disclose the risks or benefits of entering into particular transactions and should not be construed as advice in any specific instance. The views in this report constitute our judgement as of this date and are subject to change without notice.
Ian Gunner 44 20 7163 5996 06.40 EDT Monday May 31 2005


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