User Name: Password:      Register - Lost password?

Forex News Blog
Back to The Headlines
Tuesday August 10, 2004 - 20:20:49 GMT
DailyFX.com - www.dailyfx.com

Share This Story:
| | Email

DailyFX Research: Fed At The Mercy Of Oil

DailyFX Forex Fundamentals 08-10-04

By Kathy Lien, Chief Strategist

· Fed Raises Rates By 25bp to 1.50% - Hawkish Comments
· Oil Jitters Continue To Rattle Markets
· Softer UK Inflation and Wider Trade Balance

EURUSD

In a nutshell, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25bp to 1.50%, kept the word “measured” in their statement, acknowledged the slowdown in the labor market and moderation in output growth, but injected a bit of optimism by saying that “the economy nevertheless, appears poised to resume a stronger pace of expansion going forward.” There is age-old rumor that Alan Greenspan pens the FOMC statement prior to the monetary policy meeting and in light of today’s events, if that is the case, then the more bullish comments still appear to be a “face saving” measure. The statement’s focus on energy prices as the main culprit for the recent softness suggests that the Fed is hanging on the single hope that oil prices will moderate, which is a risky bet. In June, the Fed began its campaign that the rise in inflation is based upon “transitory factors” but since June 30th, oil prices have been on a one-way uptrend, rising close to 25%. However, in Greenspan’s defense, monetary policy has been very accommodative for some time now. This means that the additional rate hike will do more in terms of relaxing excessive accommodation and helping to curb inflation rather than sticking a wedge into growth. Based upon today’s price action in the euro, the markets once again have fallen back on its tendency to put their faith in their almighty Chairman.

USDCHF

The Fed’s 25bp interest rate hike and bullish outlook for stronger growth going forward has helped the dollar recoup some of its non-farm payrolls induced losses. Elaborating further on FOMC, the Fed is using the statement to tell us that they are keeping a close eye on economic releases, which is what we should be doing going forward as well. It should come as no surprise that what we need to watch is retail sales (due out on Thursday), the trend of PPI and CPI (due out at the end of this week and next) and most importantly, oil prices. We cannot stress enough that it all boils down to oil. The pre FOMC spike in the euro was induced by news that storms threatened oil outputs in the Gulf of Mexico. This caused oil prices to rally above $45/barrel. However, the rally was quickly reversed on news that Iraq will be resuming oil exports from their southern oil fields, after temporarily halting them on threats from terrorists. As you can see, oil moves markets and today’s FOMC statement suggests that not only does it move markets, but it also dictates monetary policy.

GBPUSD

As we mentioned yesterday, we believe that mixed data is a predecessor to slower growth. Yesterday, we saw higher PPI output prices and stronger house price inflation. In contrast, today we have softer inflation reports and a wider trade balance. Consumer prices fell by the largest amount in 6 months as a result of increased discounts on consumer products. This fits neatly into the Bank of England’s forecast for a dip in inflation prior to a resumption of “rising inflation pressures” by the end of the year. The trade balance also widened from a revised –GBP4.825Bln to –GBP4.973bln. The market had expected the deficit to shrink, but instead, lower oil exports has caused a widening of the deficit. The key release will be tomorrow’s Bank of England Inflation report. It will be interesting to see whether the BoE addresses the recent trend in inflation and its impact on the need for additional interest rate hikes.

USDJPY

As expected, the Bank of Japan kept monetary policy unchanged last night. The central bank has previously informed the markets that they will not be raising rates until consumer price inflation has increased for a few months. Although the BoJ kept their optimistic assessment of the economy unchanged in their August monthly report, they did warn about the negative effects of the record-breaking rally in oil prices. In last month’s report, the BoJ had said that ''Japan's economy is expected to continue to recover, gathering stronger momentum.'' Meanwhile, a strong economy has helped drive consumer confidence to a 13-year high as consumers are have become more optimistic about employment, income growth, living standards and purchases of durable goods.

 

Forex Trading News

Forex Research

Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



Elevate Your Trading With The Amazing Trader!

The Amazing Trader includes:
  • Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.
  • Live trading strategy sessions.
  • Market Updates with Trading Tools.

Register To Test Your Amazing Trader


Trading Ideas for 23 October 2017

Register for the Amazing Trader

1.

Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Tue 24 Oct
All Day flash PMIs
Wed 25 Oct
01:30 AU- CPI
08:00 DE- IFO Survey
08:30 GB- GDP
14:00 CA- BOC Decision
14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 26 Oct
11:45 EZ- ECB Decision
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
14:00 US- Pending Homes Sales
Fri 27 Oct
12:30 US- GDP
14:00 US- final Univ of Michigan

Forex Trading Outlook


Potential Trading Opportunities


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- All Day Global flash PMIs. First good look at October economic performances.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed-- 01:30 GMT AU- CPI. Top Inflation indicator.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed-- 08:00 GMT DE- IFO Survey. Top German indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed-- 14:00 GMT CA- BOC Decision. No Policy Change Expected.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 14:30 GMT US- EIA Crude. Top Weekly WTI Statistic.



John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points Updated

EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Free Forex Database updated




TRADER ADVOCACY ARTICLES

Trader's Advocate Articles..

pic

Retail Forex Brokerage Changing!

Are you looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are more critical things to consider than you might have thought.

We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.

Our Best Brokers listing section includes:Forex Broker Reviews, Forex Broker Directory, Forex Broker Comparisons and advice on How to Choose a Forex Broker

If would like guidance, advice, or have any concerns at all ASK US. We are here to help you.

SEE Our Best Brokers List

Currency Trading Tools

  • Live rates, currency news, fx charts. 

  • Research reports and currency forecasts.

  • Foreign Exchange database and history.

  • Weekly economic calendar.

Directory of  Forex trading tools

 
Terms of Use    Disclaimer    Privacy Policy    Contact    Site Map


Forex Forum
Forex Trading Forum
Forex Forum + forex rates
Forex Forum Archives
Forex Forum RSS
Free Registration

Trading Forums
Currency Forum Guide
Forum Directory
Open Forum
Futures Forum
Political Forum
Forex Brokers
Compare Forex Brokers
Forex Broker News
Forex Broker Hotline

Online Forex Trading
Forex Trading Tools
Currency Trading Tools
Forex Database
FX Chart Points
Risk/Carry Trade Chart Points
Economic Calendar
Quicklinks to Economic Data
Currency Futures Swaps
Fibonacci Calculator
Currency Futures Calculator

Forex Education
Forex Learning Center
FX Trading Basics Course
Forex Trading Course
Forex Trading Handbook

Forex Analysis
Forex Forecasts
Interest Rate Forecasts
Central Bank Forecasts

FX Charts and Quotes
Live FX Rates
Live Global Market Quotes
Live Forex Charts
US Dollar Index Chart
Global Chart Gallery
Daily Market Tracker
Forex News
Forex Blog
Forex News
Forex Blog Archives
Forex News RSS
Forex Services
Forex Products
GVI Forex
Free Trials
FX Bookstore
FX Jobs and Careers
Jobs USA
Jobs UK
Jobs Canada

Forex Forum

The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.

Forex News

The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.

Currency Trading

Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.

Forex Brokers

The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.

Forex Trading

Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.

FX Trading

Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.

Forex Blog

Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.

 

WARNING: FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING AND INVESTMENT IN DERIVATIVES CAN BE VERY SPECULATIVE AND MAY RESULT IN LOSSES AS WELL AS PROFITS. FOREIGN EXCHANGE AND DERIVATIVES TRADING IS NOT SUITABLE FOR MANY MEMBERS OF THE PUBLIC AND ONLY RISK CAPITAL SHOULD BE APPLIED. THE WEBSITE DOES NOT TAKE INTO ACCOUNT SPECIAL INVESTMENT GOALS, THE FINANCIAL SITUATION OR SPECIFIC REQUIREMENTS OF INDIVIDUAL USERS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR FINANCIAL SITUATION AND CONSULT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISORS AS TO THE SUITABILITY TO YOUR SITUATION PRIOR TO MAKING ANY INVESTMENT OR ENTERING INTO ANY TRANSACTIONS.

Copyright ©1996-2014 Global-View. All Rights Reserved.
Hosting and Development by Blue 105