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Wednesday January 24, 2007 - 09:53:41 GMT
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ACM - www.ac-markets.com
Dollar slides as expectations for Euro and UK rates tightening increase.
By Jean-Claude Braha - ACM Senior Trader
Yesterdays News and Events:
The Dollar weakened against European currencies on Tuesday as robust Euro-zone data and Central Bank comments signalled interest rates will continue to rise in Europe. ECB officials remarks indicated that they need to lift rates from the current 3.5% and stronger than expected Industrial Orders boosted the Euro. EurUsd was up 0.56% at 1.3021 and EurJpy jumped 0.6% to 158.46 as investors are looking for higher yielding and continued to sell the Yen in growing carry-trades. GbpUsd was up 0.27% at 1.9821 after hitting a 14-year peak at 1.9916. Comments by Bank of Japan governor Toshihiko Fukui pushed the Dollar higher against the Yen. Fukui told in an interview that higher rates could ultimately benefit the Japanese economy but didnâ€™t remove uncertainty about whether the Central Bank would raise rates in February. UsdJpy was slightly up at 121.70, near a 4-year high 121.88, rebounding from an intraday low 121.12. GbpJpy climbed to 241.51 record high since September 1992. Dealers said the move in GbpJpy helped the GbpUsd to rise to a 14-year peak. Analysts said British interest rates seem more likely to rise; as expectations for further tightening again increased after remarks by BoE Governor King saying risks to UK inflation and growth have shifted to the upside.
Todays Key Issues:
GB Bank of England releases Minutes of 10th-11th meeting at 9:30 GMT. GB 4Q Gross Domestic Product due at 9:30 GMT is expected 0.7% unchanged (QoQ) and 2.9% vs 2.8% (YoY). US January 19th MBA Mortgage Application due at 12:00 GMT was previously -0.6%. NZD Reserve Bank of New Zealand rate decision due at 20:00 GMT is expected unchanged at 7.25%.
The Risk Today:
EurUsd rebounds from recent consolidation level and gets closer to 1.3050 resistance. Only a move above there would break the January bear trend and open the way toward 1.3130 pivot point. UsdChf holds above supports 1.2430 and 1.2400. This keeps the underlying bull trend intact, and an eventual move above the current trend high at 1.2540 would expose the 1.2585 last Nov high. GbpUsd bull trend remains intact and yesterday intraday break up 1.9850 could trigger further advance toward 1.9916 initial resistance. This would open the door for record peaks 2.0000 and 2.0100. UsdJpy bull trend looks stronger and could break very 122.15 and 122.40 (61.8% retracement of the 135.18-101.67 multi-year decline). Further JPY weakness would expose next level, measured target at 123.25 where the rise from 118 would equal the distance made in the 114.40-119.70 rise. Initial support holds 121.40 level.
Resistance and Support:
|EURUSD ||GBPUSD ||USDJPY ||USDCHF |
|1.3290 T ||2.0100 T ||123.25 K ||1.2770 T |
|1.3130 P ||2.0000 T ||122.40 S ||1.2585 M |
|1.3050 S ||1.9850 P ||122.15 S ||1.2540 S |
|1.3025 ||1.9815 ||121.80 ||1.2430 |
|1.2930 M ||1.9753 M ||121.40 T ||1.2430 K |
|1.2900 T ||1.9570 S ||119.90 T ||1.2400 M |
|1.2820 S ||1.9315 S ||118.00 P ||1.2220 S |
|S: Strong, M: Minor, T: Trendline, K: Keylevel, P: Pivot |
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