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Friday January 26, 2007 - 11:17:54 GMT
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ACM - www.ac-markets.com
Yen edges lower on renewed sell off in carry-trades.
By Jean-Claude Braha - ACM Senior Trader
News and Events:
The German IFO index fell to 107.9 in January from Decemberâ€™s high 108.7. The decline was the result of a fall in the Current Conditions Index, from 115.3 to 112.8, reflecting a slowdown in activity due to this monthâ€™s VAT hike. The index remains at a very high level with German annual GDP growth rising to over 5% in the coming months. In addition Business expectations have continued to increase, suggesting that firms remain confident in the underlying health of the German economy. Dollar hardly reacted after a report showed Existing Home Sales fell more than expected in December. Despite this slight decline in sales of Existing Homes to 6.22m annualized in December, from 6.26m, analysts said the overall report is encouraging for two reasons. The first is that the number of homes for sale on the market fell even more than sales, taking the month supply of unsold homes down to a 6-month low of 6.8, from 7.3. Secondly, prices appear to have stopped falling - although perhaps only temporarily. The Yen edged lower as investors further extended positions against the currency despite concerns the Group of seven rich nations may comments Japanese currency weakness at a meeting next month. Asian Development Bank President Haruhiko Kuroda said Yen weakness from carry-trades had gone too far and that he saw a risk they will unwind within two year. This comment gave, at the time, little support to the Yen. UsdYen ended up 0.6% to 121.61 rebounding from intraday low 120.20 while the EurYen was only up 0.39% at 157.31 from recent low 155.77.
Todays Key Issues:
Euro-zone December M3 annual growth due at 9:00 GMT is expected 9.1 to 9.2% vs 9.3% and 3-month averaged 9% vs 8.8%. Are due at 9:30 GMT; GB November BBA UK mortgage lending figures and BBA December Mortgage Approvals expected -12.6% vs 3.7% or 68k vs 77.8k. US December Durable Goods Orders due at 13:30 GMT is expected between 2.5% to 3.5% vs 1.6%. US December New home sales due at 15:00 GMT is expected 0.6% vs 3.4% (MoM) or 1050k vs 1047K.
The Risk Today:
EurUsd continues to hold below 1.3050 recent high. Only a move above there would jeopardize our view for an eventual push below the early January low 1.2866 and run at 1.2820 (61.8% retracement of the 1.2483-1.3368 rise).
GbpUsd has been sold off in an impulsive way from the 1.9916 trend high, and breached the 1.9636 minor support. Further downside would expose 1.9590 (50% retracement of the 1.9261-1.9971 rally) and the 61.8% level at 1.9512. Minor resistance is formed at 1.9736.
UsdJpy bull trend remains active over 121.40. Any break lower than 121.10 may put it, at least temporarily, on hold. But so far, the pullback from 121.80 has stalled in the 120.50 to 120 congestion area. A break of 121.80 is required now to confirm a resumption of the uptrend and remove any bearish threat.
UsdChf recent consolidation may hold over 1.2430 key support. A break there would open the way toward 1.2380 Tuesdayâ€™s low and support. As long as those hold, market will favor a run at the 1.2550 trend high from last week.
Resistance and Support:
|EURUSD ||GBPUSD ||USDJPY ||USDCHF |
|1.3290 T ||2.0100 T ||123.25 K ||1.2770 T |
|1.3130 P ||1.9850 P ||122.40 S ||1.2585 M |
|1.3050 S ||1.9736 M ||121.80 P ||1.2550 S |
|1.2915 ||1.9630 ||121.50 ||1.2510 |
|1.2900 T ||1.9590 S ||121.40 T ||1.2430 K |
|1.2866 M ||1.9512 S ||119.90 S ||1.2400 M |
|1.2820 S ||1.9315 S ||118.00 P ||1.2260 S |
|S: Strong, M: Minor, T: Trendline, K: Keylevel, P: Pivot |
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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:
Mon 16 Oct /ul>
01:30 CN- CPI
21:45 NZ- CPI
Tue 17 Oct
08:30 GB- CPI
09:00 DE- ZEW Survey
09:00 EZ- Final HICP
Wed 18 Oct
12:30 US- Housing Starts & Permits
14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 19 Oct
01:30 AU- Employment
08:30 GB- Retail Sales
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 20 Oct
12:30 CA- Retail Sales & CPI
14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
John M. Bland, MBA
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue-- 08:30 GMT GB- CPI top tier confirmation of Inflation.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT DE- ZEW Survey second most important German monthly Survey.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT EZ- final HICP revision to flash report. Revisions are usually minor.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 13:15 GMT US- Industrial Production. Top output indicator.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 12:30 GMT US- Housing Starts and Permits revision to flash report. Useful housing leading indicator.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 14:30 GMT US- EIA Crude. Top WTI inventory measure.
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