User Name: Password:      Register - Lost password?

Forex News Blog
Back to The Headlines
Monday January 29, 2007 - 13:51:35 GMT
Mellon Bank Foreign Exchange - https://fx.mellon.com/

Share This Story:
| | Email

Forex: Mellon FX Daily - U.S. Edition

Mellon FX Daily
06:15 EST Monday, January 29, 2007

Key Points
• EUR-USD hanging on to key support, although downside risk remains firmly in place.
• Key week for US news with the FOMC meeting, ISM manufacturing, core PCE prices and employment report all due.
• JPY remains under pressure – data due tonight.
• UK CBI retail survey stronger than expected but GBP underperforms.

Market Outlook

Doubts will remain in place over whether or not last week’s more favourable news on the US housing market is firm evidence of stabilisation, as the mild weather could be confusing the seasonal adjustment process at the current time. However, the general news flow out of the US (including Friday’s strong durables number) remains more upbeat than it was for much of Q4 and this is leading the market further away from its past beliefs on the risk for Fed policy. This week sees more key events, with the FOMC meeting, ISM manufacturing, the core PCE price index and the US employment report all featuring and the tone of these releases will determine whether sentiment about sentiment can shift any further.

How things develop will be significant for the USD. EUR-USD currently has a downside bias and technical support at 1.2865 is the only thing preventing further losses at the current time. A break below this level would almost certainly lead to a further round of position liquidation and this is the most likely scenario during the week ahead. Some weaker data news, especially from the ISM manufacturing report, will be required to nullify this risk.

The latest IMM data showed that as of last Tuesday net spec long EUR-USD positions stood at 61,010 contracts, up from the 53,542 seen the previous week. Net spec long positions on cable also advanced to a fresh record high – 94,728 contracts up from 84,318 the previous week. Both cable and EUR-USD have retreated from the highs seen on Tuesday, although it is more than likely that a certain degree of excessive positioning remains in place. Support on cable is at 1.9450-1.9500.

The UK CBI retail trades survey for January came out stronger than expected, with 30% of retailers reporting y/y growth in sales volumes (strongest since Dec 2004). Expectations for February were also good, with +22% being the highest since Sep 2004. The data lends further support to current market expectations about interest rates, but GBP did not show much reaction to the news having underperformed for much of this morning. Above 0.6607 on EUR-GBP would see this extending further.

USD-JPY is showing well at the current time and any establishment above 122 today would introduce fresh upside risk. The 124.50-125.00 area remains favoured over the coming month, although there are some potential obstacles. The risks related to the G7 meeting on February 9th have softened a little after the comments made through last week, although this may yet pose a constraint closer to the event. A report on the Nikkei newswire over the weekend said the BoJ saw last week’s CPI data as being too weak to justify a rate hike, but that they would continue to review other data in the short-term i.e. tonight’s consumer expenditure report and Q4 GDP due on February 15. Overall risk continues to favour unchanged rates in H1 2007 and this would mean the continuation of a very negative JPY interest rate backdrop.

Day Ahead
Japan – data relating to the labour market, consumer spending and industrial output are due tonight and the market will most probably focus on consumer spending. Spending has bounced back in October and November after a very weak summer period (see chart) and whether this has continued or reversed will be key to sentiment about the outcome of the Feb BoJ meeting. Consumption is one of the areas highlighted by the BoJ as having been mixed in recent months.

Diary
Data/event EDT Consensus*

EU Trichet attends Eurogroup meeting 13.00
NZ Building permits (Dec) m/m 16.45 -12% last
JP Unemployment rate (Dec) 18.30 4.0%
JP Job-to-applicants ratio (Dec) 18.30 1.06
JP Overall PCE (Dec) m/m 18.30 -0.6%
JP Overall PCE (Dec) y/y 18.30 -1.2%
JP Ind prod (Dec, prel) m/m 18.50 +0.4%

Latest data Actual Consensus*
JP Retail sales (Dec) y/y -0.3% -0.6%
SE Consumer confidence (Jan) 14.7 16.0
IT Business confidence (Jan) 94.4 96.5
GB CBI retail trades survey (Jan) +30 +25 last
* Consensus unless stated

2005, Mellon Financial Corporation Note: Although obtained from sources believed by us to be reliable, Mellon Financial Corporation and its affiliates cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information upon which this report is based. This report does not purport to disclose the risks or benefits of entering into particular transactions and should not be construed as advice in any specific instance. The views in this report constitute our judgement as of this date and are subject to change without notice.
Ian Gunner 44 20 7163 5996 06.40 EDT Monday May 31 2005

 

Forex Trading News

Forex Research

Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



Elevate Your Trading With The Amazing Trader!

The Amazing Trader includes:
  • Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.
  • Live trading strategy sessions.
  • Market Updates with Trading Tools.

Register To Test Your Amazing Trader


Trading Ideas for 23 October 2017

Register for the Amazing Trader

1.

Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Tue 24 Oct
All Day flash PMIs
Wed 25 Oct
01:30 AU- CPI
08:00 DE- IFO Survey
08:30 GB- GDP
14:00 CA- BOC Decision
14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 26 Oct
11:45 EZ- ECB Decision
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
14:00 US- Pending Homes Sales
Fri 27 Oct
12:30 US- GDP
14:00 US- final Univ of Michigan

Forex Trading Outlook


Potential Trading Opportunities


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- All Day Global flash PMIs. First good look at October economic performances.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed-- 01:30 GMT AU- CPI. Top Inflation indicator.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed-- 08:00 GMT DE- IFO Survey. Top German indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed-- 14:00 GMT CA- BOC Decision. No Policy Change Expected.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 14:30 GMT US- EIA Crude. Top Weekly WTI Statistic.



John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points Updated

EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Free Forex Database updated




TRADER ADVOCACY ARTICLES

Trader's Advocate Articles..

pic

Retail Forex Brokerage Changing!

Are you looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are more critical things to consider than you might have thought.

We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.

Our Best Brokers listing section includes:Forex Broker Reviews, Forex Broker Directory, Forex Broker Comparisons and advice on How to Choose a Forex Broker

If would like guidance, advice, or have any concerns at all ASK US. We are here to help you.

SEE Our Best Brokers List

Currency Trading Tools

  • Live rates, currency news, fx charts. 

  • Research reports and currency forecasts.

  • Foreign Exchange database and history.

  • Weekly economic calendar.

Directory of  Forex trading tools

 
Terms of Use    Disclaimer    Privacy Policy    Contact    Site Map


Forex Forum
Forex Trading Forum
Forex Forum + forex rates
Forex Forum Archives
Forex Forum RSS
Free Registration

Trading Forums
Currency Forum Guide
Forum Directory
Open Forum
Futures Forum
Political Forum
Forex Brokers
Compare Forex Brokers
Forex Broker News
Forex Broker Hotline

Online Forex Trading
Forex Trading Tools
Currency Trading Tools
Forex Database
FX Chart Points
Risk/Carry Trade Chart Points
Economic Calendar
Quicklinks to Economic Data
Currency Futures Swaps
Fibonacci Calculator
Currency Futures Calculator

Forex Education
Forex Learning Center
FX Trading Basics Course
Forex Trading Course
Forex Trading Handbook

Forex Analysis
Forex Forecasts
Interest Rate Forecasts
Central Bank Forecasts

FX Charts and Quotes
Live FX Rates
Live Global Market Quotes
Live Forex Charts
US Dollar Index Chart
Global Chart Gallery
Daily Market Tracker
Forex News
Forex Blog
Forex News
Forex Blog Archives
Forex News RSS
Forex Services
Forex Products
GVI Forex
Free Trials
FX Bookstore
FX Jobs and Careers
Jobs USA
Jobs UK
Jobs Canada

Forex Forum

The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.

Forex News

The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.

Currency Trading

Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.

Forex Brokers

The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.

Forex Trading

Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.

FX Trading

Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.

Forex Blog

Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.

 

WARNING: FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING AND INVESTMENT IN DERIVATIVES CAN BE VERY SPECULATIVE AND MAY RESULT IN LOSSES AS WELL AS PROFITS. FOREIGN EXCHANGE AND DERIVATIVES TRADING IS NOT SUITABLE FOR MANY MEMBERS OF THE PUBLIC AND ONLY RISK CAPITAL SHOULD BE APPLIED. THE WEBSITE DOES NOT TAKE INTO ACCOUNT SPECIAL INVESTMENT GOALS, THE FINANCIAL SITUATION OR SPECIFIC REQUIREMENTS OF INDIVIDUAL USERS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR FINANCIAL SITUATION AND CONSULT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISORS AS TO THE SUITABILITY TO YOUR SITUATION PRIOR TO MAKING ANY INVESTMENT OR ENTERING INTO ANY TRANSACTIONS.

Copyright ©1996-2014 Global-View. All Rights Reserved.
Hosting and Development by Blue 105