User Name: Password:      Register - Lost password?

Forex News Blog
Back to The Headlines
Monday January 29, 2007 - 18:28:03 GMT
DailyFX.com - www.dailyfx.com

Share This Story:
| | Email

Forex - US Dollar – Consumer Confidence to Set the Tone

FXCM - DailyFX Fundamentals 01-29-07

By Kathy Lien, Chief Strategist of www.dailyfx.com

• US Dollar – Consumer Confidence to Set the Tone
• Euro Rebounds After Hawkish ECB Comments
• Japanese Yen Sells Off as Economic Data Supports BoJ’s Rate Decision

US Dollar - This week is make it or break it week for the US dollar. The foreign exchange market has turned very dollar bullish after a series of upside surprises in economic data, causing a sharp plunge in rate cut expectations. The Fed funds curve is now pricing in steady rates for the first half of the year and slim chances for even one interest rate cut by December. However, these expectations can turn on a dime, just like they have over the past few weeks. We have a lot of very important data due for release this week and they can either make it or break it for the dollar by fueling more gains or causing a reversal. The main releases that we are watching include the FOMC statement, Gross Domestic Product (GDP), the Institute of Supply Management Manufacturing survey (ISM) and Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP). Each report will build on the next to help us gauge how the ISM report and non-farm payrolls, which are the two most market moving indicators for the US dollar will fare. We start the week off with the Conference Board’s consumer confidence report tomorrow morning. The Conference Board report is far more reliable than the University of Michigan consumer confidence survey because it polls a larger group of people. Consumer optimism is expected to hit the highest level since May 2002 thanks to falling gasoline prices, low jobless claims and a stock market that is hovering near record highs. The 3 year high reported by the University of Michigan survey earlier this month also suggests that tomorrow’s report will be dollar bullish. If confidence proves to be as strong as the market expects, it will set the tone for the week by signaling a strong GDP report and a hawkish FOMC statement on Wednesday. However if confidence slips below December’s level, traders will begin to question the continued resilience of the US economy and will punish the US dollar as a result.

Euro – Demand from central banks as well as continually hawkish comments from European Central Bank officials have helped to prevent the EUR/USD from making a new year to date low. ECB President Trichet added credibility to the hawkish comments made by a number of his monetary policy committee members since the last ECB meeting. This weekend in Davos he said that the “fastest money supply growth in 17 years validates the recent rate hikes” and looking ahead there is still a risk that the recent rebound in oil prices could lead to an inflationary spiral. This morning, ECB member Liebscher added that the ECB has to act preemptively which indicates that the central bank is sending a clear message to the market about their plans to raise interest rates again this quarter. In fact, depending upon how aggressive oil prices rebound, the ECB could even deliver an interest rate hike in February. As for central bank demand, last Friday, Russia reiterated their plans to diversify their reserves into the Euro, Sterling and Yen at the expense of the US dollar. Aside from Russia, there is speculation that many central banks have orders to buy Euros below the 1.29 level. Looking ahead, manufacturing PMI reports from various countries within the Eurozone are due for release along with the German consumer price index. The increase in the Value Added Tax is expected to weigh on manufacturing sentiment, but our main focus will be on the expected increase in the annualized CPI growth rate to 2 percent, which would be back to the ECB’s target level. This should increase the pressure on the central bank to raise rates.

British Pound – The British pound underperformed both the US dollar and Euro after Bank of England monetary policy member Blanchflower said that inflation could fall back below the BoE’s 2 percent target by the end of the year as slack in the labor market pushes wage growth lower. Although Blanchflower typically sides with the doves, which means that he prefers looser monetary policy, his comments added salt to wound after the minutes from the latest BoE meeting revealed that the surprise rate hike was supported by only a small majority. The clear hawkishness of the ECB and the strong possibility that the Federal Reserve monetary policy statement will also be hawkish later this week has led the market to shrug off the solid CBI distributive trades number reported earlier this morning. The retail sales gage jumped from 25 to 30 while the expectations index surged form 4 to a two year high of 22. This strength indicates that the retail sector is still holding up the economy which suggests that the central bank could still raise rates in March or April.

Japanese Yen – Weak retail sales has sent the Japanese Yen plunging against the majors. Domestic spending has long been one of Japan’s biggest problems because even though corporate profitability has increased, there has been minimal wage growth. We now have evidence supporting the Bank of Japan’s decision to leave interest rates unchanged last month. There has not been enough growth in both consumer spending and consumer prices to justify tighter monetary policy. In fact, had the BoJ raised rates, they may have jeopardized the country’s fragile recovery. Even though European officials have been calling for some action to stem the Yen’s slide against the Euro, we do not expect much criticism about the currency’s weakness at the G7 meeting. The USD/JPY rate is not worrisome enough for the US to back the claim of European officials. Treasury Under Secretary Adams has already hinted that this will be the US’ stance when he said their cautious economic policy seemed appropriate. Furthermore, the weak growth in Japan validates the government’s need to keep the Yen weak.

Commodity Currencies (CAD, AUD, NZD) - The drop in oil and gold prices today forced the Australian and Canadian dollars to shrug off stronger business confidence. According to the National Australia Bank, business confidence rebounded from 2 to 4. In Canada, the survey of manufacturing conditions increased from -6 to -5. Business conditions moved back to positive while wage growth accelerated. However, neither of these reports will shift the monetary policy outlook of the Australian and Canadian central banks as both remain solidly neutral for the time being. The New Zealand dollar on the other is benefiting from a slightly more hawkish central bank and the prospects for a smaller trade deficit in the month of December.

 

Forex Trading News

Forex Research

Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



Elevate Your Trading With The Amazing Trader!

The Amazing Trader includes:
  • Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.
  • Live trading strategy sessions.
  • Market Updates with Trading Tools.

Register To Test Your Amazing Trader


Trading Ideas for 20 October 2017

Register for the Amazing Trader

1.

Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Fri 20 Oct
12:30 CA- Retail Sales & CPI
14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales


Tue 24 Oct
All Day flash PMIs
Wed 25 Oct
01:30 AU- CPI
08:00 DE- IFO Survey
08:30 GB- GDP
14:00 CA- BOC Decision
14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 26 Oct
11:45 EZ- ECB Decision
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
14:00 US- Pending Homes Sales
Fri 27 Oct
12:30 US- GDP
14:00 US- final Univ of Michigan

Forex Trading Outlook


Potential Trading Opportunities


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: High Fri-- 12:30 GMT CA- Retail Sales and CPI. Top economic indicators.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Fri-- 14:00 GMT US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing statistic.



John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points Updated

EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Free Forex Database updated




TRADER ADVOCACY ARTICLES

Trader's Advocate Articles..

pic

Retail Forex Brokerage Changing!

Are you looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are more critical things to consider than you might have thought.

We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.

Our Best Brokers listing section includes:Forex Broker Reviews, Forex Broker Directory, Forex Broker Comparisons and advice on How to Choose a Forex Broker

If would like guidance, advice, or have any concerns at all ASK US. We are here to help you.

SEE Our Best Brokers List

Currency Trading Tools

  • Live rates, currency news, fx charts. 

  • Research reports and currency forecasts.

  • Foreign Exchange database and history.

  • Weekly economic calendar.

Directory of  Forex trading tools

 
Terms of Use    Disclaimer    Privacy Policy    Contact    Site Map


Forex Forum
Forex Trading Forum
Forex Forum + forex rates
Forex Forum Archives
Forex Forum RSS
Free Registration

Trading Forums
Currency Forum Guide
Forum Directory
Open Forum
Futures Forum
Political Forum
Forex Brokers
Compare Forex Brokers
Forex Broker News
Forex Broker Hotline

Online Forex Trading
Forex Trading Tools
Currency Trading Tools
Forex Database
FX Chart Points
Risk/Carry Trade Chart Points
Economic Calendar
Quicklinks to Economic Data
Currency Futures Swaps
Fibonacci Calculator
Currency Futures Calculator

Forex Education
Forex Learning Center
FX Trading Basics Course
Forex Trading Course
Forex Trading Handbook

Forex Analysis
Forex Forecasts
Interest Rate Forecasts
Central Bank Forecasts

FX Charts and Quotes
Live FX Rates
Live Global Market Quotes
Live Forex Charts
US Dollar Index Chart
Global Chart Gallery
Daily Market Tracker
Forex News
Forex Blog
Forex News
Forex Blog Archives
Forex News RSS
Forex Services
Forex Products
GVI Forex
Free Trials
FX Bookstore
FX Jobs and Careers
Jobs USA
Jobs UK
Jobs Canada

Forex Forum

The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.

Forex News

The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.

Currency Trading

Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.

Forex Brokers

The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.

Forex Trading

Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.

FX Trading

Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.

Forex Blog

Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.

 

WARNING: FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING AND INVESTMENT IN DERIVATIVES CAN BE VERY SPECULATIVE AND MAY RESULT IN LOSSES AS WELL AS PROFITS. FOREIGN EXCHANGE AND DERIVATIVES TRADING IS NOT SUITABLE FOR MANY MEMBERS OF THE PUBLIC AND ONLY RISK CAPITAL SHOULD BE APPLIED. THE WEBSITE DOES NOT TAKE INTO ACCOUNT SPECIAL INVESTMENT GOALS, THE FINANCIAL SITUATION OR SPECIFIC REQUIREMENTS OF INDIVIDUAL USERS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR FINANCIAL SITUATION AND CONSULT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISORS AS TO THE SUITABILITY TO YOUR SITUATION PRIOR TO MAKING ANY INVESTMENT OR ENTERING INTO ANY TRANSACTIONS.

Copyright ©1996-2014 Global-View. All Rights Reserved.
Hosting and Development by Blue 105