Tuesday January 30, 2007 - 05:00:14 GMT
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Daily Analysis for USDCHF
Resistance: 1.2555 ... 1.2586 ... 1.2611 ... 1.2653
Support: 1.2510 ... 1.2480 ... 1.2460 ... 1.2430
Cautiously we look for 1.2586 to cap for a reversal lower below 1.2400
The resistance at 1.2586 has held thus far and cautiously we tend to hold a bearish stance. However, the pullback from 1.2876 has not yet been strong and we should acknowledge the risk of a quick move up to the 1.2586 area but while this caps there should be no follow-through. Thus only a clean break above 1.2586 would keep the upward momentum intact for 1.2644-66 which should cap.
Only above 1.2586 opens up 1.2644-66, 1.2708 and 1.2769. However, the 1.2644-66 area does look like providing a pullback if seen. (January 29th)
The move lower from 1.2576 has not been too convincing yet although we still prefer a bearish stance. We should allow for a move back to the 1.2576-86 area but while this caps we expect a reversal lower that should move below 1.2510 and onwards towards 1.2422-43 at least. It should stall somewhere in this area. Below is the 1.2376 corrective low while we should also allow for 1.2331.
Only if 1.2586 caps can we expect a return lower but this would mean it shouldnâ€™t get any further than 1.2313-31. Good pivot support is also found at 1.2270. (January 29th)
ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS
With the break above 1.2853 we suspect we may be seeing a 23.6% expanded flat at 1.2586 and while this holds the Wave b we would then look for a move back lower in Wave c to the 1.2376 low and possibly as far as the 38.2% correction in Wave â€“iv- at 1.2331.
Any earlier move above 1.2586 would imply we are moving up to the 223.6% projection in Wave â€“iii- which rests at 1.2653, this being between a 61.8% and 66.67% projection in the smaller Wave v.
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