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Tuesday January 30, 2007 - 10:05:58 GMT
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ACM - www.ac-markets.com
Dollar rises at four-year high against the Yen.
By Jean-Claude Braha - ACM Senior Trader
News and Events:
The Dollar hit a four-year high against the Yen as expectations that data this week will show US economy strength, sentiment which boosted the view that the Federal Reserve may not have to cut interest rates any time soon. The Fed has kept rates unchanged at 5.25% since last August and a move is not actually expected. The market will now watch closely any sign from the US monetary policy after last warnings about rising inflation and recent strong Housing and Manufacturing data. In Euro-zone, dealers are still expecting the European Central Bank to raise interest rates later this year, feeling which helped the Euro to consolidate in January. Also latest Japanese data, softer than expected inflation and a decline in retail sales in December, are driving analysts‚Äô sentiment that the Bank of Japan can not justify a rate hike at its February meeting. Overall negatives views on the Japanese currency pushed UsdJpy to a four-year peak at 122.20 before closing at 121.75 +0.17%. Also EurJpy was up 0.52% at 157.80, not far from last week high 158.63. Following the view that ECB will raise rate later this year, EurUsd was up 0.36% at 1.2962. Strength in Euro also reflected on EurChf which made an eight-year high at 1.6228 +0.22%. The Australian Dollar remains weak at 0.7726, coming from 0.7938, after last week soft inflation data which lowered market‚Äôs expectations of further monetary tightening by the Reserve Bank of Australia.
Todays Key Issues:
GBP 9:30 GMT: Net Consumer Credit December expected ¬£1.0B vs 1.04B, Mortgage Approvals December expected 125k to 126k vs 129k and December Mortgage Lending expected ¬£9.5B to 9.6B vs ¬£9.8B.
CAD 13:30 GMT: December Industrial Producer Prices expected 0.6% vs 0% (MoM) and Raw Materials Price Index 0.5% to 1.1% vs 0.9%.
US January 27th Redbook is due at 13:55 GMT, was previously 1.6% (MoM).
US January Consumer Confidence is due at 15:00 GMT expected 110 vs 109.
NZD December Trade Balance due at 21:45 GMT is expected -0.415B vs -0.785B.
JPN January Manufacturing Purchasing Manager Index due at 23:30 GMT, previously 53.1
The Risk Today:
EurUsd The rebound from the 1.2866 January low is holding below the 1.3050 resistance; for now the Euro outlook remains bearish with 1.2866 marking the next downside trigger. A break would open 1.2820 (61.8% retracement of the 1.2483-1.3368 rise). This view may be reversed with a move above 1.3050.
UsdChf is well supported by last week 1.2430 level, which provided a base for the rise through 1.2550 resistance. This would open the way toward 1.2585 next resistance.
GbpUsd remains vulnerable following the impulsive sell-off from the 1.9917 trend high. Further weakness may put the 1.9512 support in focus (61.8% retracement of the 1.9261-1.9917 rally). Initial resistance is holding 1.9736 level.
UsdJpy bull trend has pushed through new highs above the 121.80 former resistance. High of 122.20 has been briefly tested yesterday. The focus is still on 122.4 (61.8% retracement of the 135.18-101.67 decline). In the near term, initial support stays at 121.40, but only a move below the 119.90 former psychological level would show a trend reversal.
Resistance and Support:
|EURUSD ||GBPUSD ||USDJPY ||USDCHF |
|1.3290 T ||1.9917 T ||125.00 T ||1.2770 T |
|1.3130 P ||1.9850 P ||123.25 K ||1.2585 M |
|1.3050 S ||1.9736 M ||122.40 S ||1.2550 S |
|1.2955 ||1.9660 ||121.95 ||1.2545 |
|1.2900 T ||1.9590 M ||121.80 M ||1.2430 K |
|1.2866 M ||1.9512 S ||121.40 T ||1.2400 M |
|1.2820 S ||1.9315 S ||119.90 S ||1.2260 S |
|S: Strong, M: Minor, T: Trendline, K: Keylevel, P: Pivot |
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