Wednesday January 31, 2007 - 05:30:30 GMT
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Daily Analysis for GBPUSD
Resistance: 1.9630 ... 1.9665 ... 1.9691 ... 1.9738
Support: 1.9600 ... 1.9582 ... 1.9547 ... 1.9520
While 1.9582-00 supports there seems to be room for a move to the 1.9733-46 area
Gains were seen as expected but stalled at 1.9695 from where we have seen a moderately strong pullback. However, while this remains above 1.9582-00 (we favor the higher end) we look for additional gains back above 1.9630 through 1.9663-66 and then above yesterdayâ€™s high (could hold for a pullback first) to 1.9733-46 which we feel will cap for a larger pullback. Next resistance is at 1.9805.
We are a little uncertain about the Pound and can merely note the 1.9733-46 resistance followed by 1.9800-40 area. Above here is required to maintain the medium term upward momentum. (January 31st)
We feel there is probably very little (if any) downside to be seen today. There is risk to revisit the 1.9600 low and at most 1.9582 but to sustain a more bearish stance we would need a break here which should then allow losses down through 1.9547 for 1.9490-1.9512 which should hold. Only below extends to 1.9468-78 and possibly 1.9414.
We feel there may be further to go here but will probably have to allow for 1.9733-46 first but while this caps we could well see losses to 1.9490-10 and later 1.9410-20. (January 31st)
ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS
It looks like the 1.9547 low has completed the first leg lower and while this may be Wave [b] we are tending more towards this being a Wave â€“a-. There is a small Wave â€“b- at 1.9733 and this should attract but stall the upside â€“ at least initially and then we need review.
It looks like we saw a 5-wave move higher to 1.9695 and thus while price remains above the 61.8%-76.4% retracement at 1.9582-00 to complete Wave b we will look for a Wave c to take us back up to the previous Wave b resistance at 1.9733 and possibly just above to 1.9746.
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