Thursday February 1, 2007 - 05:23:37 GMT
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FX-Strategy - www.fx-strategy.com
Daily Analysis for USDCADPrice:
Resistance: 1.1773 ... 1.1786 ... 1.1810 ... 1.1845
Support: 1.1745 ... 1.1722 ... 1.1697 ... 1.1680
While 1.1783-86 caps we look for a final move down to 1.1720-25 before a reversal higher
Losses seen to just below the 1.1754 minimum target and we feel that there should be a small recovery to 1.1783-86 but this should cap. Thus only above 1.1790 would imply an earlier move higher that should quickly overcome the 1.1807-12 area to allow a further attempt at the 1.1845-50 highs.
We consider this second move lower to the 1.1720-25 support should provide a base for a stronger move higher that should break above the 1.1850 high to target 1.1918-28 which should cap. (February 1st)
Losses have been seen as expected and to just a few points below 1.1754. We feel the first move should be a choppy correction to the 1.1783-86 area but we look for this to cap and for a reversal lower below 1.1742-46 to see a test of 1.1720-25 but expect this to provide a floor for a reversal higher. Thus a stronger bearish stance will require clean break below 1.1715-20 and if seen will begin to pressure the 1.1697 level and below there to 1.1644.
We see the current retest of the 1.1720-25 area as a base for a rally. Thus a stronger decline will require break at 1.1715-20 and if seen would accelerate losses to 1.1644 and probably below. (February 1st)
ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS
We are beginning to feel more strongly about the flat Wave b which will mean a decline back to 1.1723-29 before Wave c can begin higher. We retain 1.1918-28 as probable targets for the upside.
Losses seen as expected and we feel we have seen the bottom of minor Wave iii at 1.1746. While Wave iv remains below the 50% pullback at 1.1783-86 we look for Wave v to move lower to the 1.1720-25 to complete Wave c of Wave b. This should allow Wave c of Wave v to begin and target the 161.8% projection in Wave (c) at 1.1918 and the 76.4% projection in Wave v at 1.1928.
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