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Friday February 2, 2007 - 10:22:10 GMT
Mellon Bank Foreign Exchange - https://fx.mellon.com/

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Forex: Mellon FX Daily - European Edition

Mellon FX Daily 08:10 GMT

Key Points
• Paulson plays down JPY comments.
• ISM weakness undermines short-term USD recovery story.
• Attention now switches to today’s US employment report and Michigan sentiment – non-manufacturing ISM due Monday.

Market Outlook

Late yesterday, Paulson sought to clarify the remarks he made about the JPY on Wednesday. In an interview with Bloomberg, he said “the big point I made at the hearing yesterday (Wednesday) was that in contradistinction to China, the Japanese have a currency that is traded in an open, competitive marketplace based on economic fundamentals”. He said he was only looking more carefully at the JPY because of the recent comments made by some Europeans. When asked if that meant he had little immediate concern about the JPY, he said that was “fair”. On this basis, it would seem that concerns about a weaker JPY are unlikely to gain much consensus at G7, even though Europeans will most probably mention it on the sidelines.

This will offer more protection for USD-JPY, which yesterday survived an attack on the 119.75-120.20 support area (low of 120.10). The basic arguments against the JPY remain in place, although USD-JPY itself may also depend upon US data news over the next couple of trading days (payrolls today, non-manufacturing ISM Monday).

Indeed, yesterday’s ISM manufacturing number has punched a potential hole in our expectation of a further USD recovery in the short-term, although much will also depend upon key data releases today and Monday. EUR-USD remains within range having tested and pulled back from the key 1.3050 level yesterday. Some strong US data will be required to see a renewal of downside (liquidation) risk.

Also keep an eye on GBP. It has come through a corrective period this week (without breaking 0.6650), but with the MPC meeting due next week, this could see a resumption of recent strength in the very short-term. A rate hike next week seems unlikely, but given what happened in January, the market maybe nervous about the outcome and this could see EURGBP settling back below 0.6600. Near-term resistance is now set at 0.6625.

Day Ahead
US – the employment report and Michigan sentiment are today’s features. Recent labour market numbers have been fairly solid, suggesting little in the way of a major slowdown in labour demand, while consumer sentiment remains strong according to most surveys.

Diary
Data/event EDT Consensus*

EU PPI (Dec) y/y 10.00 +4.1%
US Non-farm payrolls (Jan) 13.30 +150k
US Unemployment rate (Jan) 13.30 4.5%
US Average workweek (Jan) 13.30 33.9
US Hourly earnings (Jan) m/m 13.30 +0.3%
US Factory orders (Dec) m/m 15.00 +1.9%
US Michigan sentiment (Jan, fin) 15.00 98.0

Latest data Actual Consensus*
JP Monetary base (Jan) y/y -21.1% -21.0%
AU Trade balance (Dec) -A$1.33bn -A$1.0bn
NO PMI manu (Jan) 55.2 61.9
* Consensus unless stated
3-mth moving average of m/m change

2005, Mellon Financial Corporation Note: Although obtained from sources believed by us to be reliable, Mellon Financial Corporation and its affiliates cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information upon which this report is based. This report does not purport to disclose the risks or benefits of entering into particular transactions and should not be construed as advice in any specific instance. The views in this report constitute our judgement as of this date and are subject to change without notice.
Ian Gunner 44 20 7163 5996 06.40 EDT Monday May 31 2005

 

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