Tuesday February 6, 2007 - 05:13:42 GMT
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FX-Strategy - www.fx-strategy.com
Daily Analysis for EURUSDPrice:
Resistance: 1.2935 ... 1.2966 ... 1.2989 ... 1.3020
Support: 1.2910 ... 1.2896 ... 1.2865 ... 1.2840
Slightly mixed â€“ watch the 1.2910-65 range for the next 50 points
The 1.2923 level gave way and price has extended towards the next support at 1.2907-13. We feel there should be a recovery from here back to 1.2960-65 but around this area we should see a peak. If this resistance breaks cleanly then we can extend direct gains which would then move back towards 1.2989 and then congestion between 1.3010-30 which should stall the upside. Next resistance is then found at 1.3063-81.
We still see the 1.3081-1.3131 as a cap for a larger reversal lower. Thus a stronger MT bullish stance will need a break above 1.3131 in which case weâ€™d quickly see 1.3296 & 1.3367. (February 1st)
We have seen the decline stall at 1.2913 and we note support also at 1.2907. We feel that we should get a bounce to around 1.2960-64 from where we should see additional losses back to the 1.2907-13 area once again where a small bounce should be seen followed by a test of the 1.2865 low which we feel would hold if seen.
Our LT view is still lower but we feel we shall need to be patient. Only a direct loss of 1.2865 and then 1.2789 would extend losses to 1.2596-1.2633 which should hold. (February 6th)
ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS
On the face of things the peak at 1.3063, while not meeting our target, does look as if it completed the Flat Correction. The decline from there has been constructive and we feel a small Wave iii should end around 1.2923 where a small correction should be seen before further losses to the 1.2865-76 area where we expect a pullback at the very least.
Any bounce from 1.2923 could well imply a more complex correction in which the flat to 1.3064 was merely Wave (a) of Wave [b] and from there we need to judge how that complex correction can develop.
Only while 1.2960-65 caps will the 1.2865 low be targeted in Wave v of the decline from 1.3063 high to be followed by a correction.
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