Wednesday February 7, 2007 - 05:11:03 GMT
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FX-Strategy - www.fx-strategy.com
Daily analysis for USDCHFPrice:
Resistance: 1.2436 ... 1.2472 ... 1.2496 ... 1.2518-35
Support: 1.2384 ... 1.2349 ... 1.2330 ... 1.2296
Slightly mixed â€“ with a break of the 1.2381-1.2445 range generating the next 50-80 points
Failure at 1.2518 and the reversal below 1.2447 has brought a new picture and this does tend to have more bearish implications. There is support at 1.2381-86 and resistance at 1.2431-41. For a bullish stance the support needs to hold and the resistance needs to be overcome. If seen then look for a reversal back higher to the 1.2470-75 pivot area and probably the 1.2496-1.2518 area. Next resistance is at 1.2535.
The bounce came from 1.2376 again and we feel there should be a retest of 1.2555-76 at the very least but only a break here would trigger a test of 1.2645 & possibly 1.2667 where we shall review. (February 5th)
The break below 1.2447 has generated losses to 1.2386 and this would tend to suggest that we are seeing a stronger move lower. If this is the case we would expect the 1.2431-41 area to cap and for a break below 1.2381 to generate losses down to the 1.2331 area which we feel will hold for a stronger reversal higher. Thus only below 1.2313-25 would extend the downside to the stronger 1.2250-60 Fibonacci & pivot support.
The expected pullback has occurred and we target the 1.2313-31 area for a base. However, only below 1.2264-70 would accelerate the downside towards 1.2110-45. (February 1st)
ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS
We feel the move to 1.2518 was the end of 5-waves but this doesnâ€™t fit within a Wave â€“v- position. Thus we are either seeing a larger sideways consolidation or we will need to move the Wave â€“iii- label to the 1.2576 high to bring back the 1.2280-1.2320 as a 41.4%-50% retracement in Wave â€“iv-.
It looks as if we are seeing a move lower in Wave â€“c- with the only concern being a possible flat correction in Wave â€“b- that would send price back up to the 1.2518 area again. Below 1.2376 would extend to the 76.4% extension in Wave v of Wave â€“c- at 1.2330 which is where Wave â€“iv- will have retraced by 41.4%
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