User Name: Password:      Register - Lost password?

Forex News Blog
Back to The Headlines
Thursday August 12, 2004 - 11:14:05 GMT
DailyFX.com - www.dailyfx.com

Share This Story:
| | Email

US OPEN MARKET POINTS 08-12-04

US OPEN MARKET POINTS 08-12-04
Published By: Boris Schlossberg, Fundamental Analyst

It All Comes Down To Oil
"It really comes down to oil," former Federal Reserve Board Governor Laurence Meyer said on Wednesday. "Everything is predicated on oil prices kind of receding, not being much above $40 a barrel. If it goes to $50, it's a whole new game. If it stays at $45, it's a bit of a pain." We slightly disagree. If oil stays at $45 it will be more than a bit of pain. Although, far less important in today’s data-driven, service-oriented world oil is still a major structural cost for all G-7 nations. Indeed, 95% of the world's transportation system is dependent on hydrocarbons. Furthermore, oil is quickly becoming the lifeblood of emerging market countries like China, India and Brazil whose rapid ascent to industrialization will continue to put upward pressure on the price. By now the drag of steadily rising oil prices on consumer spending have been well publicized. But as we experience the summer lull in the FX markets, we may take the time to examine some far more sinister and conspiratorial implications of permanently high oil prices on the US dollar.

For as long as international markets have existed US consumers have enjoyed the privileged position of paying for the commodity in their own currency. This dynamic allowed US to “print” dollars to pay for oil and greatly ameliorated US Current Account deficit swollen by oil imports. However, frustrated with the declining value of the dollar, which greatly reduced their purchasing power, some oil producers including Saudi Arabia began to privately float the idea of pricing oil in euros. The idea was quickly shelved after 9/11 and Iraq, but one proponent of this plan never abandoned the concept. Russia, the world’s second largest oil exporter, continued to consider the possibility. As early as August of last year. German media reported that Vladimir Putin made a deal with Gerhard Schroder for a change of pricing oil in euros, but Mr. Putin was coy in his reply, stating only "We do not rule out that it is possible. That would be interesting for our European partners." Given the fact that the recent run-up in oil was largely due to Putin government’s thuggish handling of the Yukos affair we could speculate – and speculate only- that some more ominous strategic factor is in play. If Russia does indeed decide to price oil in euros, the bearish effect on the USD would be enormous.

For now, the market seems content to follow the minutia of the day, as German and French GDP post stronger than expected numbers and put a minor bid under the euro. The US session will bring the Retail Sales which will need to beat expectations if the dollar is to have chance of stopping its slide. A big decline in oil in New York trading will also be a huge help to the greenback but if the $45/bbl price persists much longer, our far more nefarious oil scenario may come into market focus.

Key Overnight Developments
- NZD Retail Sales rise 4 times faster than projected providing further proof of robust growth and possibly of further hikes
- EUR FRF GDP beats consensus 0.8% vs. 0.6% as consumer spending perks up.

FX Spot Overnight
- EUR trades above 2250 after good GDP data in quiet uptrend
- JPY breaks 111 handle after bearish oil comments by Saudis and consolidates at 110.50
- GBP breaks 8300 to the upside in very quiet trade
- CHF trades all the way to 2550 after good Swiss consumer data and general dollar weakness

Upcoming Events
12:30GMT – (8:30 AM EST) USD Initial Jobless Claims (Aug 7) Expected at 340K, Previous 336K
12:30GMT – (8:30 AM EST) USD Advance Retail Sales m/m (July) Expected at 1.1%, Previous -1.1%
12:30GMT – (8:30 AM EST) USD Retail Sales ex-Autos (July) Expected at 0.4%, Previous –0.2%
14:00GMT – (10:00 AM EST) USD Business Inventories (June) Expected at 0.6%, Previous 0.4%


 

Forex Trading News

Forex Research

Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



Elevate Your Trading With The Amazing Trader!

The Amazing Trader includes:
  • Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.
  • Live trading strategy sessions.
  • Market Updates with Trading Tools.

Register To Test Your Amazing Trader


Trading Ideas for 23 October 2017

Register for the Amazing Trader

1.

Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Tue 24 Oct
All Day flash PMIs
Wed 25 Oct
01:30 AU- CPI
08:00 DE- IFO Survey
08:30 GB- GDP
14:00 CA- BOC Decision
14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 26 Oct
11:45 EZ- ECB Decision
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
14:00 US- Pending Homes Sales
Fri 27 Oct
12:30 US- GDP
14:00 US- final Univ of Michigan

Forex Trading Outlook


Potential Trading Opportunities


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- All Day Global flash PMIs. First good look at October economic performances.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed-- 01:30 GMT AU- CPI. Top Inflation indicator.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed-- 08:00 GMT DE- IFO Survey. Top German indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed-- 14:00 GMT CA- BOC Decision. No Policy Change Expected.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 14:30 GMT US- EIA Crude. Top Weekly WTI Statistic.



John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points Updated

EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Free Forex Database updated




TRADER ADVOCACY ARTICLES

Trader's Advocate Articles..

pic

Retail Forex Brokerage Changing!

Are you looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are more critical things to consider than you might have thought.

We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.

Our Best Brokers listing section includes:Forex Broker Reviews, Forex Broker Directory, Forex Broker Comparisons and advice on How to Choose a Forex Broker

If would like guidance, advice, or have any concerns at all ASK US. We are here to help you.

SEE Our Best Brokers List

Currency Trading Tools

  • Live rates, currency news, fx charts. 

  • Research reports and currency forecasts.

  • Foreign Exchange database and history.

  • Weekly economic calendar.

Directory of  Forex trading tools

 
Terms of Use    Disclaimer    Privacy Policy    Contact    Site Map


Forex Forum
Forex Trading Forum
Forex Forum + forex rates
Forex Forum Archives
Forex Forum RSS
Free Registration

Trading Forums
Currency Forum Guide
Forum Directory
Open Forum
Futures Forum
Political Forum
Forex Brokers
Compare Forex Brokers
Forex Broker News
Forex Broker Hotline

Online Forex Trading
Forex Trading Tools
Currency Trading Tools
Forex Database
FX Chart Points
Risk/Carry Trade Chart Points
Economic Calendar
Quicklinks to Economic Data
Currency Futures Swaps
Fibonacci Calculator
Currency Futures Calculator

Forex Education
Forex Learning Center
FX Trading Basics Course
Forex Trading Course
Forex Trading Handbook

Forex Analysis
Forex Forecasts
Interest Rate Forecasts
Central Bank Forecasts

FX Charts and Quotes
Live FX Rates
Live Global Market Quotes
Live Forex Charts
US Dollar Index Chart
Global Chart Gallery
Daily Market Tracker
Forex News
Forex Blog
Forex News
Forex Blog Archives
Forex News RSS
Forex Services
Forex Products
GVI Forex
Free Trials
FX Bookstore
FX Jobs and Careers
Jobs USA
Jobs UK
Jobs Canada

Forex Forum

The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.

Forex News

The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.

Currency Trading

Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.

Forex Brokers

The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.

Forex Trading

Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.

FX Trading

Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.

Forex Blog

Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.

 

WARNING: FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING AND INVESTMENT IN DERIVATIVES CAN BE VERY SPECULATIVE AND MAY RESULT IN LOSSES AS WELL AS PROFITS. FOREIGN EXCHANGE AND DERIVATIVES TRADING IS NOT SUITABLE FOR MANY MEMBERS OF THE PUBLIC AND ONLY RISK CAPITAL SHOULD BE APPLIED. THE WEBSITE DOES NOT TAKE INTO ACCOUNT SPECIAL INVESTMENT GOALS, THE FINANCIAL SITUATION OR SPECIFIC REQUIREMENTS OF INDIVIDUAL USERS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR FINANCIAL SITUATION AND CONSULT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISORS AS TO THE SUITABILITY TO YOUR SITUATION PRIOR TO MAKING ANY INVESTMENT OR ENTERING INTO ANY TRANSACTIONS.

Copyright ©1996-2014 Global-View. All Rights Reserved.
Hosting and Development by Blue 105