Wednesday February 7, 2007 - 14:13:35 GMT
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GVI Monthly Forex Poll Analyis Courtesy Cumino
EUR USD 3 months: 1st day close 1.2928(1.3019), av. responses 1.2982(1.3033), Adjusted boundaries 1.25-1.33(1.26-1.34).
GVI 56%(54%)COMPONENTS 8%73%19%(12%68%20%). DRY INDEX: 54%(44%).
6mstdev: 5%(5%). Comp. 6m.a.-/+1STD : (9-13-18) (57-65-73) (14-22-29) INDEX(50-54-59)
EUR GVI INDEX Roughly unchanged, slightly bullish. Neutrals increased.
Frankly commenting is difficult. All is in the average. Since the last survey not only spot but vol., positions and RR were roughly unchanged while interest rates expected and data showed a slightly better Dollar picture. The only small sign that one timidly can start to find is in the correlation story of the Survey (and out) suggesting that EUR could be increasingly perceived more for itself and less as pure anti-dollar.
USD JPY 3 months: 1st day close 120.33(118.73), av. responses 118.86(115.47), Adjusted boundaries 116-124(115-123).
GVI: 49%(27%) COMPONENTS: 16%71%13%(48%50%2%) DRY INDEX: 30%(11%).
6mstdev: 8%(7%). Comp. 6m.a.-/+1STD (16-28-40) (57-66-75) (2-6-10) INDEX(31-39-47)
Neutral in absolute terms, USD bullish in relative terms. 32% of bearish USD moved, 2/3 of them to neutral camp and 1/3 to the bullish camp. However neutrals are high now.
I commented last time that the one-way sentiment present there was really a USD buy signal, and that proved correct. As the other times when that happened then the successive Survey changed meaningfully. However DRY is still low and the 1.5 spread is on the long term average, so in the short term people should be rather firmly skewed to sell every USD slightly better level. May be some nervousness could surface in the 120.90/00 area and a bit panic near 121.30/40.
OIL 3 months: 1st day close 58.74(56.09), av. responses 61.44(59.81), Adjusted boundaries 52-66 (49-63).
GVI:59%(64%) COMPONENTS: 3%77%20%(3%66%31%). DRY INDEX:70%(75%)
6mstdev: 9%(9%). Comp. 6m.a. -/+1STD: (1-10-18) (66-72-78) (8-18-28) INDEX(45-54-63)
Bullish. More than it seems at a first glance.
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