User Name: Password:      Register - Lost password?

Forex News Blog
Back to The Headlines
Thursday February 8, 2007 - 11:12:55 GMT
Mellon Bank Foreign Exchange -

Share This Story:
| | Email

Forex Research: Mellon FX Daily - U.S. Edition

Mellon FX Daily 05:35 EST

Key Points
• Haru comments underpin weaker JPY.
• EUR could rise further if Trichet advances resilient message at today’s ECB meeting.
• GBP should weaken a little further if MPC leaves rates unchanged.

Market Outlook

This week’s ECB meeting (see below for preview) suddenly became a risk for the EUR after last week’s newswire rumours about the possibility of a more dovish approach to policy in the months ahead. However, the market has become more relaxed about it as the week has worn on and probably with good reason. Today’s presentation is likely to be EUR-USD supportive and this should see a retest of the top end of the current range at 1.3050-60.

The JPY has remained soft overnight aided by comments from the BoJ’s Haru that a weak JPY is positive for the Japanese economy. This has helped to underpin expectations that the weekend’s G7 meeting will fail to reveal anything new about the JPY. 157.80 (tested already) is the main resistance level on EUR-JPY – 121.40 on USD-JPY. Oddly enough, this morning’s much weaker than expected Swiss CPI data seemed to correspond with a sharp spike in USD-JPY and EUR-JPY, suggesting that ‘carry trade’ currencies are trading in tandem. Japanese bank lending last night was reasonably solid, maintaining the sharp rise seen the previous month, although this is not enough to offset the weaker data seen elsewhere (i.e. CPI and consumer spending). Tonight sees the release of the latest machinery orders data. Orders have bounced back over the past two months from the very low levels seen in September, but remain well below the peaks of Q2.

GBP could retreat a little against the EUR if, as we expect, the MPC leaves rates unchanged (see below for preview). Resistance on EUR-GBP is at 0.6625, although if this breaks expect 0.6650 to hold. The interest rate backdrop will remain GBP supportive for the time being.

Day Ahead
UK – the MPC meeting is the main focal point and after last month’s surprise and the generally strong data that has followed, there is clearly some uncertainty about the outcome. On the face of it, the MPC may naturally feel a little uncomfortable about pursuing successive rate hikes and the January minutes did strongly suggest that the hike at that meeting was basically the bringing forward of the February move. However, the added uncertainty today is that this is an Inflation Report meeting, which will mean the generation of a new set of inflation and growth forecasts. If the inflation forecasts are high enough the MPC’s policy rules would suggest another rate hike. This does seem unlikely but there is a risk. If rates are left unchanged there will be no statement and the Inflation Report itself (due next week) will be significant in determining market expectations about future rate hike risk.

Eurozone – the ECB meeting is likely to see rates being left unchanged, with Trichet having made this fairly clear in January. Key will be his comments at the press conference about what is intended for March and the focus on this has been heightened by newswire rumours last week that rates may not be hiked until April and will then stay on hold. The primary focus will be on whether he uses the word ‘vigilance’. Unless he vigorously attempts to suggest that the past rules on the use of the word vigilance have changed, the use of the word or otherwise will drive expectations about the outcome of the March meeting. It seems likely that he will signal a March hike today. Trichet will also be questioned about last week’s rumours, although expect him to brush these aside as being irrelevant and for him to reiterate that the ECB council has no need for ‘anonymous communication’ as he was also forced to do last April. He will likely state that ECB meetings and press conferences are the only important vehicles for policy communication.

Data/event EDT Consensus*

UK MPC rate announcement 07.00 unch
EU ECB meeting outcome 07.45, press conf 08.30 unch
CA Housing starts (Jan) 08.15 215k
CA New house prices (Jan) m/m 08.30 +0.5%
US Initial claims (w/e Feb 3) 08.30 310k
US Continuing claims (w/e Jan 27) 08.30 2553k last
JP Machinery orders –core (Dec) m/m 18.50 -0.7%
AU Housing finance (Dec) m/m 19.30 +0.3%

Latest data Actual Consensus*
US Consumer credit (Dec) +$6.0bn +$6.0bn
NZ Unemployment rate (Q4) 3.7% 3.8%
JP M2 plus CDs (Jan) y/y +1.0% +0.9%
JP Bank lending (Jan) y/y +1.7% +1.7% last
GB NIESR GDP (3mths to Jan) q/q +0.8% +0.7% last
AU Employment (Jan) -3.6k +5k
AU Unemployment rate (Jan) 4.5% 4.6%
CH CPI (Jan) y/y +0.1% +0.5%
DE Trade balance (Dec) €10.8bn €16.5bn
DE Current account (Dec) €9.8bn €10.5bn
DE Exports (Dec) m/m -2.0% +0.3%
GB HBOS house prices (Jan) m/m +1.3% -0.9% last
SE Ind prod (Dec) m/m +2.5% +0.7%
* Consensus unless stated

2005, Mellon Financial Corporation Note: Although obtained from sources believed by us to be reliable, Mellon Financial Corporation and its affiliates cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information upon which this report is based. This report does not purport to disclose the risks or benefits of entering into particular transactions and should not be construed as advice in any specific instance. The views in this report constitute our judgement as of this date and are subject to change without notice.
Ian Gunner 44 20 7163 5996 06.40 EDT Monday May 31 2005


Forex Trading News

Forex Research

Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."

Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.

Register To Test Your Amazing Trader

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Tue 17 July 2018
AA 08:30 GB- Employment
A 13:15 US- Industrial Production
AA 14:00 US-Powell Testimony
Wed 18 July 2018
AA 08:30 GB- CPI
A 12:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
AA 14:00 US-Powell Testimony
Thu 19 July 2018
AA 1:30 AU- Employment
AA 08:30 GB- Retail Sales
A 14:30 US- EIA Crude
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 20 Jun 2018
A 12:30 CA- CPI/Retail Sales

John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner,

Global-View Affiliate Program

We are starting an affiliate program to market some of our products.

Send me an email if you would be interested or if you know someone who would like to be an affiliate. Generous commissions payout for those accepted.

Put the word "affiliate" in the email subject line.

Contact us

Start trading with forex broker Markets Cube

Max McKegg's Daily Forex Trading Forecasts

Veteran FX Trader, Max McKegg, forecasts all the Major currencies and the Australasians; providing Daily and Medium Term Trading forecasts to subscribers, who include large Banks the world over, as well as individual traders in more than 30 different countries.

Request a TRIAL of Max's Forex Service.


Retail Forex Brokerage Changing!

Are you looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are more critical things to consider than you might have thought.

We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.

Our Best Brokers listing section includes:Forex Broker Reviews, Forex Broker Directory, Forex Broker Comparisons and advice on How to Choose a Forex Broker

If would like guidance, advice, or have any concerns at all ASK US. We are here to help you.

SEE Our Best Brokers List

Currency Trading Tools

  • Live rates, currency news, fx charts. 

  • Research reports and currency forecasts.

  • Foreign Exchange database and history.

  • Weekly economic calendar.

Directory of  Forex trading tools

Terms of Use    Disclaimer    Privacy Policy    Contact    Site Map

Forex Forum
Forex Trading Forum
Forex Forum + forex rates
Forex Forum Archives
Forex Forum RSS
Free Registration

Trading Forums
Currency Forum Guide
Forum Directory
Open Forum
Futures Forum
Political Forum
Forex Brokers
Compare Forex Brokers
Forex Broker News
Forex Broker Hotline

Online Forex Trading
Forex Trading Tools
Currency Trading Tools
Forex Database
FX Chart Points
Risk/Carry Trade Chart Points
Economic Calendar
Quicklinks to Economic Data
Currency Futures Swaps
Fibonacci Calculator
Currency Futures Calculator

Forex Education
Forex Learning Center
FX Trading Basics Course
Forex Trading Course
Forex Trading Handbook

Forex Analysis
Forex Forecasts
Interest Rate Forecasts
Central Bank Forecasts

FX Charts and Quotes
Live FX Rates
Live Global Market Quotes
Live Forex Charts
US Dollar Index Chart
Global Chart Gallery
Daily Market Tracker
Forex News
Forex Blog
Forex News
Forex Blog Archives
Forex News RSS
Forex Services
Forex Products
GVI Forex
Free Trials
FX Bookstore
FX Jobs and Careers
Jobs USA
Jobs UK
Jobs Canada

Forex Forum

The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.

Forex News

The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.

Currency Trading

Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by

Forex Brokers

The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.

Forex Trading

Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.

FX Trading

Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.

Forex Blog also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.



By using this website, you are agreeing to our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use, and Cookie Policy

Copyright ©1996-2014 Global-View. All Rights Reserved.
Hosting and Development by Blue 105