Friday February 9, 2007 - 05:37:16 GMT
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FX-Strategy - www.fx-strategy.com
Daily Analysis for AUDUSDPrice:
Resistance: 0.7820 ... 0.7835 ... 0.7861 ... 0.7881
Support: 0.7780 ... 0.7757 ... 0.7725 ... 0.7696
Watch support at 0.7780 â€“ while this holds further gains are possible
The wave relationships are not holding up too well and we therefore expect that we have either seen the final high or more likely there are further to go. While further gains are possible we need to see the 0.7780 support hold. From there a break back above 0.7820 would extend the upside towards 0.7835 minimum and we suspect the 0.7861 area which we feel should cause a pullback.
The correction from 0.7696 has been creeping higher and we look at key resistance at 0.7861 and 0.7906. Only above these will keep the upward momentum intact for 0.7936 and the 0.7979 high. (February 9th)
We are not too happy with the wave structure but feel there is still a little way to go on the upside. Thus to catch the next move lower we need look for breaks of support. We feel this is at 0.7780 and any break here would bring some additional bearishness. If seen then look for reaction at supports at 0.7655-60 and then 0.7725. We suspect these will give way and cause a retest around the 0.7696 low before a stronger correction.
With the continued ratcheting higher we need to allow for a move to 0.7861 minimum and at most 0.7906. While this remains intact we will look for a resumption of the downtrend. (February 9th)
ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS
The break of 0.7815 confuses the picture and it seems as if we may have seen the Wave â€“c- low at 0.7696 and thus we are looking at a Wave â€“x- correction. We note a small target area around 0.7861-71 which is generated from internal relationships on the way up and also as a 61.8% retracement in Wave â€“x-.
However, we cannot rule out a stronger pullback to the 76.4% retracement at 0.7906-12. This does have a good argument being close to the prior Wave â€“b- at 0.7936.
Only below the 0.7750-80 pivot area would cause an earlier resumption of the downward correction.
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