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Friday February 9, 2007 - 11:28:28 GMT
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Forex Research: Mellon FX Daily - U.S. Edition

Mellon FX Daily 06:05 EST

Key Points
• JPY remains soft as G7 meeting begins.
• EUR-USD hemmed in by resistance at 1.3050-60.
• GBP should retain support given solid data backdrop.
• Canadian employment due.

Market Outlook

The G7 meeting got underway this morning and any side comments from officials are likely to be consistent with the posturing of the various camps in the run-up to the event. A formal communiqué is unlikely to appear until Saturday and rumours about the nature of that statement may also be limited until tomorrow. The JPY is unlikely to make it into the communiqué, which should be fairly close to that seen in September. A weak JPY does make it more difficult for other Asian countries to allow their currencies to strengthen against the USD and this is slightly at odds with G7 desires about the stabilisation of global imbalances. However, there seems to be a feeling amongst the majority that little can be done about it for the time being, given the ongoing low level of Japanese interest rates. The JPY is likely to remain fairly soft in anticipation of the passing of this meeting without incident, as it has been overnight, and more JPY weakness is likely next week. Japanese machinery orders out last night were in line with expectations and on a trend basis remain subdued.

Yesterday’s presentation by Trichet at the ECB meeting helped to remove some of the doubts that emerged over ECB policy last week. He signalled the likelihood of a March hike and offered no suggestions about the possibility of a pause in policy. He also directly challenged the notion that the ECB needed to use anonymous communication channels to transmit their thoughts on policy. The EUR has been well underpinned since the meeting, although EUR-USD remains hemmed in by the top of the month old range at 1.3050-60. There is some upside risk in the very short-term, although these levels need to break to generate some impetus.

Some damage was inflicted on GBP yesterday after the MPC left rates unchanged. Indeed, EUR-GBP was boosted from both sides, given the way both MPC and ECB meetings turned out. However, GBP should retain good support given the way the data has been developing in recent weeks, so this EUR-GBP move should run out of steam somewhere between here an 0.6700 and a modest return lower looks likely early next week. Back below 0.6645 would the trigger for some weakness. Major movement looks unlikely though until Wednesday’s Inflation Report has been seen. This will be significant in determining how rate expectations develop. Trade data this morning was fairly poor and this also weighed on GBP a little.

CPI data out of Norway was much weaker than expected, with the core y/y rate staying unchanged at +1.0% instead of rising to +1.3% as the market had anticipated. The total CPI y/y rate fell to +1.2% from +2.2% due to a sharp drop in electricity prices. The data prompted a sharp rise in EUR-NOK, although the data is unlikely to have major implications for policy. CPI has not been a major factor driving Norges Bank policy over the past year, while other data this week (manufacturing output/labour market) has been strong. The NOK should find its feet, with the only doubt being that it has already had a good run of late. 8.15 needs to hold to avert further corrective activity.

Day Ahead
Canada – employment numbers are due and these have been one of the few bright spots in the data in recent months – the average m/m rise in employment during Q4 was 44.8k. Given the weakness seen in other data a slowdown in labour demand would appear likely at some point.

Data/event EDT Consensus*

G7 G7 meeting begins (2 days)
CA Employment (Jan) 07.00 +17k
CA Unemployment rate (Jan) 07.00 6.1%
US Fed’s Poole on econ 08.45

Latest data Actual Consensus*
JP Machinery orders core (Dec) m/m -0.7% -0.7%
AU Housing finance (Dec) m/m +0.1% +0.3%
DE WPI (Jan) y/y +3.1% +3.2%
FR Ind prod (Dec) m/m +1.1% +0.3%
FR Trade balance (Dec) -€2.9bn -€2.9bn
SE AMS Unemp rate (Jan, nsa) 4.6% 4.3%
NO CPI (Jan) y/y +1.2% +2.1%
NO CPIX (Jan) y/y +1.0% +1.3%
IT Ind prod (Dec) m/m +2.0% +0.7%
GB Global trade balance (Dec) -£7.1bn -£6.9bn
GB Non-EU trade balance (Dec) -£4.3bn -£4.3bn
* Consensus unless stated

2005, Mellon Financial Corporation Note: Although obtained from sources believed by us to be reliable, Mellon Financial Corporation and its affiliates cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information upon which this report is based. This report does not purport to disclose the risks or benefits of entering into particular transactions and should not be construed as advice in any specific instance. The views in this report constitute our judgement as of this date and are subject to change without notice.
Ian Gunner 44 20 7163 5996 06.40 EDT Monday May 31 2005


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