User Name: Password:      Register - Lost password?

Forex News Blog
Back to The Headlines
Monday February 12, 2007 - 22:36:53 GMT
DailyFX.com - www.dailyfx.com

Share This Story:
| | Email

Forex - US Dollar – Bernanke and Retail Sales to Drive Activity This Week

FXCM - DailyFX Fundamentals 02-12-07

By Kathy Lien, Chief Strategist of www.dailyfx.com

• US Dollar – Bernanke and Retail Sales to Drive Activity This Week
• EUR/USD Nears Bottom of Range Ahead of ZEW and GDP Data
• Canadian Dollar Hit by Oil Reversal

US Dollar - With the G7 meeting behind us, traders have taken the US dollar higher once again. With no major US data on the calendar, today’s move is nothing more than a relief rally. Any official criticism from the G7 finance ministers about the Japanese Yen would have been negative for the US dollar since the high yielding currency would have fallen victim to carry trade liquidation. Instead, the combination of a lack of an official mention and falling oil prices has helped to push the dollar higher once again. The US fiscal condition continues to improve as the US posted a $38.2 billion budget surplus in the month of January. With a busy economic calendar ahead of us, the EUR/USD runs a strong chance of breaking out of its 1.2860 to 1.3060 range. The marquee events this week are on Wednesday when we get retail sales for the month of January and Bernanke’s comments on the economy and monetary policy. The central bank head has been tight lipped about his views on growth and inflation since the last FOMC statement. Although the Federal Reserve will most likely acknowledge the stronger growth that we have seen recently, they may opt to explain their cautiously hawkish statement from the last meeting. The concerns center on the housing market as they have previously indicated that it may be too early to tell whether the sector has stabilized. The odds are for a more dollar positive statement but any further hesitancy could prevent the dollar from rallying. In the meantime we have the trade balance due for release tomorrow. The deficit is expected to increase due to a higher oil import bill.

Euro - The Euro is nearing the bottom of its month long trading range against the US dollar. There was no economic data released this morning and the comments from Eurozone officials continue to be optimistic. Over the weekend ECB member Mario Draghi said there were no signs of an economic slowdown in the Eurozone. These comments come after the hawkish comments that we heard from ECB President Trichet last week. Even though this week is dominated by US data, traders should not lose sight of the fact that the ECB has signaled to the market their intention of raising interest rates again in March. Tomorrow we have fourth quarter GDP data from the four major countries within the Eurozone as well as the German ZEW survey. The region as a whole performed well in the fourth quarter and we expect the GDP data to reflect that. The ZEW survey however could surprise to the downside as analysts consider the delayed impact of Germany’s Value Added tax increase. The market could put more weight on the ZEW data since it is forward looking while the GDP data is backward looking. The combination of a strong ZEW and GDP report however could exacerbate Euro strength as range traders look for anything to key off of.

British Pound - The British pound is weaker against the US dollar today as traders respond to the surprising 2 percent drop on the inputs for producer prices in the month of January. Although output prices increased, the drop in input prices raises concerns that tomorrow’s consumer price report could also surprise to the downside. The Bank of England likes to keep the market guessing and traders are still trying to figure out whether we will see another rate hike in March after the Bank’s surprise hike in January. A decline in both consumer and producer prices would signal a more neutral stance from BoE Governor King when he delivers the Quarterly Inflation Report on Wednesday. The outlook for monetary policy has long been a primary driver for sterling strength and weakness. This week’s inflation report is even more important since the Bank of England did not issue a statement after leaving interest rates unchanged last week. Traders will be very keen to hear the central bank’s updated take on the outlook for the economy and monetary policy. Aside from PPI, the pound is also under pressure after Vodafone announced plans to buy 67 percent of India’s Hutchinson Essar for $11 billion.

Japanese Yen - Just from looking at the mixed performance of the Japanese Yen today, it is clear that the G7 meeting was a non-event. It is important to note that Japanese markets were closed for the past 24 hours so the first reaction to the G7 from Japanese traders will not be until tonight. Even though there was no official criticism about yen weakness, the G7 did acquiesce to European pressure by commenting on the carry trade indirectly. The group acknowledged Japan’s economic recovery and expressed their confidence that market participants will eventually take this into consideration. This was not enough to cause carry trade liquidation and instead will shift the market’s focus to next week’s Bank of Japan monetary policy meeting. The market will look at this week’s incoming data and assess how that could impact to BoJ’s decision.

Commodity Currencies (CAD, AUD, NZD) - The commodity currencies all weakened today on the combination of lower oil prices and disappointing data. The drop in oil was triggered by comments from Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi who said that OPEC may not need further production cuts as the market remains supported in the near term. The statements were coupled with announcements by one of the largest distributors in Saudi Arabia on their intentions to keep supplies robust to the Asian countries, undermining the previously announced cuts by the trade group. As a result, traders taking advantage of the correlation between crude oil and the CAD, pared back positioning and took the currency pair higher off of the 1.1700 support. In the Australian dollar, Aussie buying waned in the session following a slightly more dovish monetary report by the Reserve Bank of Australia. Citing that the economy was moving along as expected, monetary officials additionally revised their inflationary forecasts lower to rise at a 2.75 percent pace in 2007. Ultimately, the reports are likely to keep downward pressure on the pair until the NAB business confidence report is released tonight. Expectations are for the survey to rise incrementally, which may serve as some support for the currency in the near term. New Zealand producer prices fell 0.3 percent on an input level and 0.5 percent on an output level. The softer inflationary pressures should reduce the likelihood of a rate hike by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand next month.

 

Forex Trading News

Forex Research

Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



Elevate Your Trading With The Amazing Trader!

The Amazing Trader includes:
  • Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.
  • Live trading strategy sessions.
  • Market Updates with Trading Tools.

Register To Test Your Amazing Trader


Trading Ideas for 18 October 2017

Register for the Amazing Trader

1.

Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Wed 18 Oct
12:30 US- Housing Starts & Permits
14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 19 Oct
01:30 AU- Employment
08:30 GB- Retail Sales
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 20 Oct
12:30 CA- Retail Sales & CPI
14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales

Forex Trading Outlook


Trading Opportunities


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue-- 08:30 GMT GB- CPI top tier confirmation of Inflation.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT DE- ZEW Survey second most important German monthly Survey.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT EZ- final HICP revision to flash report. Revisions are usually minor.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 13:15 GMT US- Industrial Production. Top output indicator.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 12:30 GMT US- Housing Starts and Permits revision to flash report. Useful housing leading indicator.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 14:30 GMT US- EIA Crude. Top WTI inventory measure.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 01:30 GMT AU- Employment. Top economic indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 02:00 GMT CN- GDP. Top economic indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Thu-- 08:30 GMT GB- Retail Sales. Top consumption indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 12:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless. Employment Indicator.



John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points Updated

EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Free Forex Database updated




TRADER ADVOCACY ARTICLES

Trader's Advocate Articles..

pic

Retail Forex Brokerage Changing!

Are you looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are more critical things to consider than you might have thought.

We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.

Our Best Brokers listing section includes:Forex Broker Reviews, Forex Broker Directory, Forex Broker Comparisons and advice on How to Choose a Forex Broker

If would like guidance, advice, or have any concerns at all ASK US. We are here to help you.

SEE Our Best Brokers List

Currency Trading Tools

  • Live rates, currency news, fx charts. 

  • Research reports and currency forecasts.

  • Foreign Exchange database and history.

  • Weekly economic calendar.

Directory of  Forex trading tools

 
Terms of Use    Disclaimer    Privacy Policy    Contact    Site Map


Forex Forum
Forex Trading Forum
Forex Forum + forex rates
Forex Forum Archives
Forex Forum RSS
Free Registration

Trading Forums
Currency Forum Guide
Forum Directory
Open Forum
Futures Forum
Political Forum
Forex Brokers
Compare Forex Brokers
Forex Broker News
Forex Broker Hotline

Online Forex Trading
Forex Trading Tools
Currency Trading Tools
Forex Database
FX Chart Points
Risk/Carry Trade Chart Points
Economic Calendar
Quicklinks to Economic Data
Currency Futures Swaps
Fibonacci Calculator
Currency Futures Calculator

Forex Education
Forex Learning Center
FX Trading Basics Course
Forex Trading Course
Forex Trading Handbook

Forex Analysis
Forex Forecasts
Interest Rate Forecasts
Central Bank Forecasts

FX Charts and Quotes
Live FX Rates
Live Global Market Quotes
Live Forex Charts
US Dollar Index Chart
Global Chart Gallery
Daily Market Tracker
Forex News
Forex Blog
Forex News
Forex Blog Archives
Forex News RSS
Forex Services
Forex Products
GVI Forex
Free Trials
FX Bookstore
FX Jobs and Careers
Jobs USA
Jobs UK
Jobs Canada

Forex Forum

The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.

Forex News

The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.

Currency Trading

Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.

Forex Brokers

The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.

Forex Trading

Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.

FX Trading

Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.

Forex Blog

Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.

 

WARNING: FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING AND INVESTMENT IN DERIVATIVES CAN BE VERY SPECULATIVE AND MAY RESULT IN LOSSES AS WELL AS PROFITS. FOREIGN EXCHANGE AND DERIVATIVES TRADING IS NOT SUITABLE FOR MANY MEMBERS OF THE PUBLIC AND ONLY RISK CAPITAL SHOULD BE APPLIED. THE WEBSITE DOES NOT TAKE INTO ACCOUNT SPECIAL INVESTMENT GOALS, THE FINANCIAL SITUATION OR SPECIFIC REQUIREMENTS OF INDIVIDUAL USERS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR FINANCIAL SITUATION AND CONSULT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISORS AS TO THE SUITABILITY TO YOUR SITUATION PRIOR TO MAKING ANY INVESTMENT OR ENTERING INTO ANY TRANSACTIONS.

Copyright ©1996-2014 Global-View. All Rights Reserved.
Hosting and Development by Blue 105