Tuesday February 13, 2007 - 05:33:03 GMT
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FX-Strategy - www.fx-strategy.com
Daily analysis for USDJPYPrice:
Resistance: 121.75 ... 121.95 ... 122.18 ... 122.47
Support: 121.30 ... 120.98 ... 120.80 ... 120.52
Cautiously we feel the downside should now follow-through
No test of 122.18 and this morning losses are developing and we tend to prefer the downside. Watch support around 121.26-32. This is the last area which could still fit within a bullish stance and a bounce from here would move back towards the 122.08-18 highs which could see a small pullback. Break above would allow the upside to extend towards 122.47 at least. Care here as this could cause a pullback. Next resistance is at 122.70-00.
Price is pushing higher but we require a break above 122.18 and then 123.03 to maintain the upward momentum for 124.00.31 at least else see a dip back to 119.41-70 before higher. (February 12th)
Price failed to retest the 122.18 high and we have seen a break lower this morning. There is one last area to break to confirm additional losses â€“ this being at 121.26-32. This may hold for a pullback but while this remains below 121.75 we will look for eventual loss of 121.26 and then 121.00 to see the downside extend towards 120.50-55 at least. Somewhere around this area we shall expect a correction. The eventual target in this scenario would be the 119.41-70 area.
Still no break lower and we still feel that the 119.41-80 area is critical if we are to see additional losses. (February 12th)
ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS
We feel the most likely pattern is a Flat from 122.18 and this should generate losses below any potential minor Wave iv retracement around 121.26-32 and an alternative Wave b at 121.00 to take us down to the 119.95 low again and probably the full 50% pullback in Wave â€“iv- at 119.41. We should however note pivot support at 119.70.
If we are wrong then we should see a bounce from around 121.00 as Wave â€“b- of Wave â€“v- and thus look for a final wave higher in Wave â€“c- of Wave â€“v-.
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