Thursday February 15, 2007 - 05:23:06 GMT
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FX-Strategy - www.fx-strategy.com
Daily Analysis for USDCHFPrice:
Resistance: 1.2409 ... 1.2433 ... 1.2453 ... 1.2478
Support: 1.2380 ... 1.2368 ... 1.2346 ... 1.2331
While 1.2433-53 caps we feel there is risk of one last decline to the 1.2331-46 area then higher
Losses continued yesterday as suggested but we feel that we need be a little more cautious now. Certainly, price has done just enough to complete the pattern we have been following since the 1.2576 high. However, we still feel that while 1.2433-53 caps there is risk of one final decline to the 1.2331-46 area but should hold. Thus from here or an earlier break above 1.2455 we shall be looking for stronger gains back above 1.2507-20.
We now view the 1.2331-68 area as the limit to the downside and look for the MT uptrend to resume. Back above 1.2460 calls for a move back to 1.2576 initially where a correction can be expected. (February 15th)
Having moved below 1.2379 the pattern we have been following can be described as complete. However, we feel we need to be aware of the risk of one final decline towards the 1.2331 target although there is support at 1.2346 also. The 1.2433-53 area needs to cap while this final decline is possible. Thus a stronger bearish stance will require a break below 1.2330 which would then extend the correction to 1.2260-79 which should cause a pullback.
The pullback has only reached 1.2379. This may have completed the move but only below 1.2331 and 1.2279 would imply stronger losses. (February 13th)
ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS
While the breach of 1.2376 could mean that the flat correction is complete we still favor a test of the 41.4% pullback level in Wave â€“iv- at 1.2331. We should also note the full 50% retracement at 1.2279 but we feel this holds a smaller risk.
Thus we look for Wave â€“iv- to complete and this should prompt a rally in Wave â€“a- of Wave â€“v- back to the 1.2576 high initially followed by a correction in Wave â€“b-.
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