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Thursday February 15, 2007 - 15:19:36 GMT
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Forex and Commodity Market Commentary and Analysis (15 February 2007)

The euro appreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested offers around the US$ 1.3170 level and was supported around the $1.3120 level. Stops were hit above the $1.3155 level, representing the 23.6% retracement of the move from $1.2480 to $1.3365. The common currency moved to multi-day highs yesterday after Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke reported “inflation pressures are beginning to diminish” and confirmed the Fed lowered its 2007 GDP growth forecast. Traders await Bernanke’s testimony today to see if it differs from yesterday’s in any way that could impact the dollar. Many data were released in the U.S. today. First, it was reported that January import prices were off 1.2% m/m and up 0.1% y/y and this will result in less pressure on the Fed to lift interest rates. Second, weekly initial jobless claims were up 44,000 to 357,000 while continuing jobless claims rose 71,000 to 2.56 million. Third, the Empire State manufacturing index printed at 24.35, a relatively strong result. Fourth, December industrial production was off 0.5% while capacity utilization came in at 81.2%. Sixth, Treasury International Capital flows data saw net foreign acquisition of long-term U.S. securities come in at US$ 2.5 billion, down from US$ 52.2 billion in November and US$ 83.1 billion on October. Total net long-term securities purchases totaled US$ 15.6 billion in December, down from US$ 84.9 billion in November and US$ 93.5 billion in October. These data mean the U.S. did not finance its massive current account deficit two months ago with foreign portfolio inflows. The Philadelphia Fed index will be released later in the North American session along with the NAHB housing market index. In eurozone news, the European Central Bank’s monthly bulletin reiterated “strong vigilance” is needed to counter inflation risks. The ECB also reported producer price pressures may result in higher consumer price inflation despite the recent decline in oil prices. Additionally, the ECB reported that economists it surveyed have reduced their forecasts for eurozone inflation in 2007 to an average of 2.0% and lifted their growth forecasts. Euro bids are cited around the US$ 1.3045 level.

¥/ CNY

The yen appreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested bids around the ¥119.80 level and was capped around the ¥120.80 level. Technically, today’s intraday high was right around the 38.2% retracement of the move from ¥122.15 to ¥119.95. The pair came off after the release of stronger-than-expected Japanese GDP data that printed at an annualized rate of 4.8% in the October-December quarter. These data led to increased speculation that Bank of Japan could lift interest rates next week. Other data released today saw condominium sales in Tokyo and Osaka fall 11.6% y/y and 23.7% y/y, respectively. MoF official Watanabe indicated today’s data support the government’s view that the economy is recovering. European Central Bank member Quaden jawboned about the yen overnight saying the yen and Chinese yuan “aren’t entirely in conformity, to say the least, with the state of current account of these two countries.” Fed Chairman Bernanke yesterday indicated “there are no overt interventions or any such factors affecting the yen at this time.” The Nikkei 225 stock index climbed 0.81% to close at ¥17,897.23. Dollar bids are cited around the ¥119.60 level. The euro came off vis-à-vis the yen as the single currency tested bids around the ¥157.35 level and was capped around the ¥158.65 level. The British pound and Swiss franc weakened vis-à-vis the yen as the crosses tested bid around the ¥234.80 and ¥96.70 levels, respectively. The Chinese yuan appreciated marginally vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar as the greenback closed at CNY 7.7555 in the over-the-counter market, down from CNY 7.7575. Data released in China today saw the M2 money supply up 15.9% y/y as of the end of January, below December’s 16.94% pace. Other data released today saw January wholesale prices up 4.6% y/y.

The British pound weakened vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as cable tested bids around the US$ 1.9545 level and was capped around the $1.9675 level. Technically, today’s intraday high was just above the 38.2% retracement of the move from $1.9260 to $1.9915. Data released in the U.K. today saw January retail sales fall 1.8% m/m, the largest monthly fall in four years and below expectations. Also, RICS reported that house price growth decelerated in last month. Cable bids are cited around the US$ 1.9510 level. The euro moved higher vis-à-vis the British pound as the single currency tested offers around the ₤0.6715 level and was supported around the ₤0.6675 level.


The Swiss franc appreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested bids around the CHF 1.2340 level and was capped around the CHF 1.2405 level. Data released in Switzerland today saw the February ZEW survey print at -17.3. Dollar offers are cited around the CHF 1.2435 level. The euro and British pound came off vis-à-vis the Swiss franc as the crosses tested bids around the CHF 1.6240 and CHF 2.4200 figure, respectively.

The Australian dollar moved higher vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the Aussie tested offers around the US$ 0.7865 level and was supported around the $0.7825 level. Data released in Australia today saw February inflation expectations settle recede to 3.2%. Australian dollar bids are cited around the US$ 0.7815 level.


The Canadian dollar appreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested bids around the C$ 1.1625 level and was capped around the C$ 1.1670 level. Data released in Canada today saw manufacturing shipments rose 1.7% m/m in December while new orders rose 2.1%. U.S. dollar bids are cited around the C$ 1.1580 level.

Gold/ Silver

Gold weakened vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the yellow metal tested bids around the US$ 665.73 level and was capped around the $ 670.20 level. Silver backed off vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the pair tested bids around the US$ 13.87 level and was capped around the $14.06 level.

Crude Oil

Crude oil depreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as light, sweet NYMEX crude oil futures for March delivery tested bids around the US$ 57.08 level and were capped around the $58.51 level. OPEC reported that it sees 2007 oil demand growth at 1.2 million barrels per day but noted it may reduce this forecast if warmer weather returns to the U.S. Traders continue to monitor events in Iran, a country that President Bush said is supplying weapons to Iraqi insurgents.


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AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Tue 31 July 2018
AA JP- Bank of Japan
A 06:00 DE- Retail Sales
A 09:00 EZ- flash HICP/GDP
AA 12:30 US- Core PCE Deflator
A 14:00 US- CB Consumer Confidence
Wed 1 Aug 2018
A Final Mfg PMIs
AA 12:15 US- ADP Private Payrolls
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Thu 2 Aug 2018
AA 11:00 GB- Bank of England Decision
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Fri 3 Aug 2018
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AA 12:30 US- Employment
A 12:30 US/CA- Trade

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