Tuesday February 20, 2007 - 04:54:05 GMT
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Daily Analysis for GBPUSDPrice:
Resistance: 1.9564 ... 1.9580 ... 1.9607 ... 1.9641
Support: 1.9500 ... 1.9470 ... 1.9429 ... 1.9400
We do look for a recovery and favor the 1.9600-14 area to cap but be careful at 1.9580 also
Losses seen as expected but these moved a little lower than anticipated but found a low at 1.9429. We feel this is still part of a complex sideways correction and thus there should be one last attempt higher. Thus while 1.9470-00 supports a break above 1.9564 should allow a final attempt at 1.9600-14 which we feel should cap. Thus a more bullish stance will require a break above 1.9614 and then 1.9641. If seen look for a swift move back up to 1.9746 and possibly 1.9812.
We doubt now that weâ€™ll see any strength above 1.9620-42 and thus a bullish stance will need break here which would extend to yesterdayâ€™s high and then through the 1.9746 high en route 1.9812 min. (February 16th)
Although the losses seen yesterday were slightly stronger than expected we still feel this works within a bearish pattern. However, the first move looks to be higher to the 1.9600-14 area. While this caps a move back below 1.9540-65 should extend the losses back to the 1.9400-29 area initially. Next support is at 1.9331.
We now expect the 1.9620-42 area to cap and from there a move back below 1.9400 is expect to reach the 1.9260 low and probably lower. (February 16th)
ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS
It looks like the irregular triangle is developing. This has support around 1.9463-80 and resistance at max 1.9620-42 from where we expect the next leg lower to develop.
What looks to be Wave ef^d dipped a little lower than expected to 1.9429 and thus we feel that if this pattern is correct then we shouldnâ€™t see a move more than 61.8%-66.67% back in Wave ef^e to 1.9600-14. Note a 76.4% projection lies at 1.9641. From this next peak we should then see a move back lower in Wave â€“c- that should initially move to 1.9400.
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