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Thursday February 22, 2007 - 11:29:24 GMT
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Mellon FX Daily - U.S. Edition

Mellon FX Daily 06:25 EST

Key Points
• Market remains wary about pushing JPY downside given current positioning, but further weakness
looks likely.
• US CPI helps the USD – EUR-USD support at 1.3060.
• Light data schedule today.

Market Outlook

The JPY has remained soft overnight, although the market remains a little wary about pushing it too far given the risk of some liquidation of the hefty short JPY positioning still in place. However, given the way things are developing in Japan – low yields, rate hike event risk out of the way until Q3 at the earliest – the underlying JPY weak trend should extend further in the short-term. The market is perhaps waiting for signs in the price action that suggest a likely renewal of some upside momentum on key JPY crosses and 121.45 and 122.20 on USD-JPY will be important in this regard. EUR-JPY is almost there having made a fresh high overnight, although below 158.40-50 today would take some of the edge off this cross, while 120.80 has similar relevance to USD-JPY.

JPY weakness is again likely to be concentrated against the higher-yielding currencies such as the AUD and NZD, so the latter could continue to show some out-performance against the majors in the very short-term. At the other end of the spectrum, the CHF could be facing some trouble, given that it has been increasingly lumped together with the JPY as a low-yielder. There is some risk of a EUR-CHF move beyond 1.6300 over the coming week.

With most of the focus on the JPY,EUR-USD is taking something of a back seat. Yesterday’s stronger than expected core CPI number out of the US offered some support to the USD and while this is just one month’s worth of data, it may play on suspicions in the market and at the Fed (as reflected in yesterday’s FOMC minutes) that the softness in core consumer price inflation in Q4 was transient. Core PCE prices are due next Thursday. Support on EUR-USD at 1.3050-60 could be tested today, although this should hold for now.

Mixed news again for GBP yesterday, with a slightly dovish set of MPC minutes being followed by a rip-roaringly strong CBI survey. So strong in fact that one is left wondering whether it is a genuine signal of what is going on in the manufacturing sector. There has certainly been no inkling of such strength appearing in the official manufacturing output data or the PMI survey, although the recent quarterly BCC survey was also strong. The risk of a rate hike will remain in place for April or May and this will offer some support for GBP. 0.6750-60 on EUR-GBP looks like it has held for now – support at 0.6685.

Day Ahead
Japan – the all industry activity index is released tonight andseems likely to follow the tertiary index (released last week) lower. Market impact should be minimal.

Data/event EDT Consensus*

US Initial claims (w/e Feb 17) 08.30 323k
US Continuing claims (w/e Feb 10) 08.30 2515k last
BE Business confidence (Feb) 09.00 2.2
JP All-industry index (Dec) m/m 18.50 0.0%
JP CSPI (Jan) y/y 18.50 +0.2% last

Latest data Actual Consensus*
JP Trade balance (Jan, sa) ¥1086bn ¥768bn
AU AWOTE wages (Q4) q/q +0.7% +0.8%
DE GDP (Q4, details) q/q +0.9% +0.9%
FR Own company ind outlook (Feb) +11 +12
FR Business climate indicator (Feb) 107.0 106.0
IT Business confidence (Feb) 95.4 94.6
NO GDP – total (Q4) q/q +0.5% +1.0%
NO GDP – mainland (Q4) q/q +1.2% +1.1%
IT Retail sales (Dec) m/m 0.0% +0.1%
GB Business investment (Q4) q/q +3.3% +3.1% last
EU Manu orders (Dec) m/m +2.8% +0.2%
* Consensus unless stated

2005, Mellon Financial Corporation Note: Although obtained from sources believed by us to be reliable, Mellon Financial Corporation and its affiliates cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information upon which this report is based. This report does not purport to disclose the risks or benefits of entering into particular transactions and should not be construed as advice in any specific instance. The views in this report constitute our judgement as of this date and are subject to change without notice.
Ian Gunner 44 20 7163 5996 06.40 EDT Monday May 31 2005


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