User Name: Password:      Register - Lost password?

Forex News Blog
Back to The Headlines
Thursday February 22, 2007 - 22:46:08 GMT
DailyFX.com - www.dailyfx.com

Share This Story:
| | Email

Forex - US Dollar – Carry Trade Demand Continues to Drive Greenback Higher

DailyFX Fundamentals 02-22-07

By Kathy Lien, Chief Strategist of DailyFX.com

Euro - Belgium Business Survey Suggests Potential Strength in German IFO Report
US Dollar – Carry Trade Demand Continues to Drive Greenback Higher
Profit Taking Hits the Commodity Currencies

US Dollar
Reeling off of yesterday’s firmer inflation numbers, the US dollar continued to strengthen today. The dollar’s most meaningful gain was against the Yen as carry trade demand continued to drive the currency pair higher. The two pieces of US data released today were jobless claims and help wanted ads, both of which dropped less than expected. Last week’s 359k print and this week’s 332k print suggests that the labor market may not have been as healthy this month as it was back in January. We still have 2 weeks before the non-farm payrolls report, but the outlook for labor market is very dollar friendly at the moment. On what was otherwise a relatively quiet trading day, we saw a brief burst of dollar weakness as rumors circulated that the terror alert would be raised. The Department of Homeland Security clarified shortly thereafter that there was no imminent threat, but the damage was already done. Earlier news that Iran is expanding rather than freezing their nuclear program already made the markets jittery about potential geopolitical risks, but the impact on the dollar was limited. The follow up rumor about the terror alert came less than hour later and that was the straw that broke the camel’s back. Iran’s clear defiance suggests that the US could take a more aggressive measure by attacking Iran while the threat of attacks from the US could cause Iran to flex their muscles by causing terrorist attacks. Either of these scenarios could trigger a wave of dollar selling. There is no US data scheduled for release tomorrow but Fed Presidents Fisher and Yellen will both be speaking about the US economic outlook.

Euro
Despite a V shaped intraday reversal, the Euro still ended the session lower against the US dollar. Economic data was mixed. Fourth quarter German GDP was confirmed at 0.9 percent. The breakdown of the data indicates strength in exports but weakness in government and private consumption. French, Italian and Belgium business confidence were all stronger than expected, which suggests that we could see strength in tomorrow’s much awaited German IFO report. The Belgium business outlook survey tends to have a strong correlation with the German IFO report. Having hit a record high back in December, even if we see a small pullback in German business confidence it may not be entirely bearish for the Euro. However, there remains a risk of a sharper pullback on the potential drag from the Value Added Tax increase. Meanwhile in Switzerland the employment rate increased from 1.3 percent to 1.6 percent, which was slightly weaker than expected. The market was looking for employment to increase from 3.695 million to 3.7 million but it only rose to 3.699 million.

British Pound
The British pound is stronger across the board as the central bank injects more uncertainty about the outlook for monetary policy. Just after the market sent the currency tumbling on the back of less hawkish MPC minutes from the latest monetary policy meeting, Bank of England’s Chief Economist Bean reminded everyone that the central bank cannot afford to relax about inflationary pressures. Just as the sharp upward movement in inflation over the past year may have exaggerated the pick-up in underlying inflation, so the prospective fall back is likely to overstate the extent to which inflationary pressures have abated." He indicates that it is difficult to know where rates are headed next and there are just as many upside as downside risks. The Bank of England is a notoriously flexible central bank and depending upon how data fares, they have done 180 flips in the monetary policy to respond to that. Fourth quarter business investment was much stronger than expected, which has helped to drive demand for the British pound. We are expecting the second release of fourth quarter GDP tomorrow, no changes are predicted which should leave the market’s focus on the German IFO report.

Japanese Yen
Carry trade demand was so powerful today that it sent the Japanese Yen to a fresh all time low against the Euro. Economic data was mixed. The trade surplus for the month of January fell short of expectations but exports rose much stronger than expected thanks to the weak Yen. Although Chinese demand could falter in February due to the Lunar New Year, the continual weakness in the Yen this year should limit the fallback. We could also see a boost to consumer spending as Toyota plans to increase bonuses in the next fiscal year, which begins in April. Record sales have been driving Japanese labor unions to ask for more pay from automakers As wage negotiations reach agreements, we expect more announcements of this nature. Weak wage growth has been the primary concern for Japanese policymakers. Record profitability could finally help to drive more liberal spending.

Commodity Currencies (CAD, AUD, NZD)
After yesterday’s strong rally, it was not surprising to see the commodity currencies succumb to profit taking as both gold and oil prices stabilize. The biggest percentage loser of the three was the Australian dollar which came under pressure on the back of continually cautious comments from Treasurer Costello. Overnight he warned that the drought could trim three quarters of a percentage point from growth last year; Australian GDP is due on March 6th. New Zealand reported a smaller increase in credit card spending for the month January as well as a downward revision to the December data. The Canadian dollar had no reason to weaken today aside from profit taking. Crude prices continued to rise after the EIA reported the largest decline in heating oil and gasoline stockpiles since September 2005. No data is expected from any of the Commodity Bloc countries tomorrow, which means that their price action could once again be driven by the moves in the commodity market.

 

Forex Trading News

Forex Research

Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



Elevate Your Trading With The Amazing Trader!

The Amazing Trader includes:
  • Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.
  • Live trading strategy sessions.
  • Market Updates with Trading Tools.

Register To Test Your Amazing Trader


Trading Ideas for 23 October 2017

Register for the Amazing Trader

1.

Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Tue 24 Oct
All Day flash PMIs
Wed 25 Oct
01:30 AU- CPI
08:00 DE- IFO Survey
08:30 GB- GDP
14:00 CA- BOC Decision
14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 26 Oct
11:45 EZ- ECB Decision
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
14:00 US- Pending Homes Sales
Fri 27 Oct
12:30 US- GDP
14:00 US- final Univ of Michigan

Forex Trading Outlook


Potential Trading Opportunities


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- All Day Global flash PMIs. First good look at October economic performances.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed-- 01:30 GMT AU- CPI. Top Inflation indicator.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed-- 08:00 GMT DE- IFO Survey. Top German indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed-- 14:00 GMT CA- BOC Decision. No Policy Change Expected.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 14:30 GMT US- EIA Crude. Top Weekly WTI Statistic.



John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points Updated

EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Free Forex Database updated




TRADER ADVOCACY ARTICLES

Trader's Advocate Articles..

pic

Retail Forex Brokerage Changing!

Are you looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are more critical things to consider than you might have thought.

We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.

Our Best Brokers listing section includes:Forex Broker Reviews, Forex Broker Directory, Forex Broker Comparisons and advice on How to Choose a Forex Broker

If would like guidance, advice, or have any concerns at all ASK US. We are here to help you.

SEE Our Best Brokers List

Currency Trading Tools

  • Live rates, currency news, fx charts. 

  • Research reports and currency forecasts.

  • Foreign Exchange database and history.

  • Weekly economic calendar.

Directory of  Forex trading tools

 
Terms of Use    Disclaimer    Privacy Policy    Contact    Site Map


Forex Forum
Forex Trading Forum
Forex Forum + forex rates
Forex Forum Archives
Forex Forum RSS
Free Registration

Trading Forums
Currency Forum Guide
Forum Directory
Open Forum
Futures Forum
Political Forum
Forex Brokers
Compare Forex Brokers
Forex Broker News
Forex Broker Hotline

Online Forex Trading
Forex Trading Tools
Currency Trading Tools
Forex Database
FX Chart Points
Risk/Carry Trade Chart Points
Economic Calendar
Quicklinks to Economic Data
Currency Futures Swaps
Fibonacci Calculator
Currency Futures Calculator

Forex Education
Forex Learning Center
FX Trading Basics Course
Forex Trading Course
Forex Trading Handbook

Forex Analysis
Forex Forecasts
Interest Rate Forecasts
Central Bank Forecasts

FX Charts and Quotes
Live FX Rates
Live Global Market Quotes
Live Forex Charts
US Dollar Index Chart
Global Chart Gallery
Daily Market Tracker
Forex News
Forex Blog
Forex News
Forex Blog Archives
Forex News RSS
Forex Services
Forex Products
GVI Forex
Free Trials
FX Bookstore
FX Jobs and Careers
Jobs USA
Jobs UK
Jobs Canada

Forex Forum

The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.

Forex News

The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.

Currency Trading

Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.

Forex Brokers

The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.

Forex Trading

Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.

FX Trading

Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.

Forex Blog

Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.

 

WARNING: FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING AND INVESTMENT IN DERIVATIVES CAN BE VERY SPECULATIVE AND MAY RESULT IN LOSSES AS WELL AS PROFITS. FOREIGN EXCHANGE AND DERIVATIVES TRADING IS NOT SUITABLE FOR MANY MEMBERS OF THE PUBLIC AND ONLY RISK CAPITAL SHOULD BE APPLIED. THE WEBSITE DOES NOT TAKE INTO ACCOUNT SPECIAL INVESTMENT GOALS, THE FINANCIAL SITUATION OR SPECIFIC REQUIREMENTS OF INDIVIDUAL USERS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR FINANCIAL SITUATION AND CONSULT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISORS AS TO THE SUITABILITY TO YOUR SITUATION PRIOR TO MAKING ANY INVESTMENT OR ENTERING INTO ANY TRANSACTIONS.

Copyright ©1996-2014 Global-View. All Rights Reserved.
Hosting and Development by Blue 105