Friday February 23, 2007 - 11:42:56 GMT
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Mellon Bank Foreign Exchange - https://fx.mellon.com/
Forex Research - Mellon FX Daily - U.S. Edition
Mellon FX Daily 06:25 EST
â€¢ JPY continues to edge lower â€“ more weakness likely in the short-term.
â€¢ EUR-USD slightly lower following weaker than expected IFO.
â€¢ EUR-USD remains well inside the recent range and major movement looks unlikely ahead of key US releases over the next two weeks.
â€¢ Solid UK GDP report aids GBP â€“ 0.6685 is support on EUR-GBP.
â€¢ Very light schedule for the remainder of the day, with Fed speakers the only features.
The JPY continues to probe lower, albeit cautiously, with the market still mindful of the positional backdrop and the risk of some corrective activity. However, further JPY weakness remains favoured in the short-term and key will be whether USD-JPY can break through the 122.19 high from January. Such a break would firmly suggest that corrective pressures have been brushed aside and would provide extra momentum to any upmove. EUR-JPY has already forged to new highs and the JPY is currently looking set for its biggest weekly loss against the EUR since September 2005. 160.00 will have psychological value. The USD-JPY rise this week is set to be the biggest in six months.
softened slightly following the release of some slightly weaker than expected IFO numbers out of Germany. However, it remains well within the range parameters established after the upside break seen last week. Major movement seems unlikely until key US releases are seen over the next couple of weeks (ISM surveys and employment report). Support remains at 1.3060 and resistance is at 1.3190 ahead of the 1.3200-50 area. While todayâ€™s IFO number was below market expectations, it remains at levels that are historically high.
has stabilised further this morning, helped by a solid looking Q4 GDP report, which follows the strong CBI survey earlier this week. The GDP number was supported by strength in consumption and investment, with net exports providing an offset. Further independent GBP strength may be difficult, with support on EUR-GBP at 0.6685 likely to hold for now.
â€“ a very quiet data schedule today, with Fed speakers Fisher and Yellen the only highlights.
Data/event EDT Consensus*
US Fedâ€™s Fisher on econ 10.45
US Fedâ€™s Yellen on econ 15.35
Latest data Actual Consensus*
JP All-industry index (Dec) m/m 0.0% 0.0%
JP CSPI (Jan) y/y +0.6% +0.2% last
FR Hâ€™hold consumption (Jan) m/m +1.2% +0.2%
SE Consumer confidence (Feb) 18.7 +16.0
SE Manufacturing confidence (Feb) +4 +7
DE IFO index (Feb) 107.0 107.5
DE IFO current (Feb) 111.6 112.0
DE IFO expectations (Feb) 102.6 103.1
NO Unemployment rate (Dec, sa) 2.8% 2.8%
GB GDP (Q4, 2nd est) q/q +0.8% +0.8%
* Consensus unless stated
ï›™2005, Mellon Financial Corporation Note: Although obtained from sources believed by us to be reliable, Mellon Financial Corporation and its affiliates cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information upon which this report is based. This report does not purport to disclose the risks or benefits of entering into particular transactions and should not be construed as advice in any specific instance. The views in this report constitute our judgement as of this date and are subject to change without notice.
Ian Gunner 44 20 7163 5996 06.40 EDT Monday May 31 2005
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