Monday February 26, 2007 - 05:18:36 GMT
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FX-Strategy - www.fx-strategy.com
Daily Analysis for USDJPYPrice:
Resistance: 120.95 ... 121.20 ... 121.40 ... 121.62
Support: 120.65 ... 120.48 ... 120.22 ... 119.98
We look for 120.65 (max 120.48) to support for a return towards 121.62 and later to 122.20-40
In the end the 121.62 peak held and we have seen a direct pullback. This should stall at 120.65 (max 120.48) and from there we look for a recovery that will break back above 121.20 to return to the 121.62 area where we should see a brief correction ahead of an eventual move to the 122.20-40 area. (This may well take until tomorrow.) However, this should cap for a larger pullback. Only above 122.67 would extend the upside towards the next larger daily target at 123.76.
The 120.48-65 area should support for a test of 122.20-40 and then we need wait for a correction before a final move into April that should stall in the 124.90-125.30 area. (February 26t)
The drop back below 121.30-40 has generated additional losses but we feel these are close to completion. There is good support between 120.48-65 and we doubt this will break. Thus a more bearish stance will require a break below 120.48 and if see would provoke extension lower below 120.22 and 119.98 with an eventual tentative target around 119.48-64.
We have seen the recovery develop almost perfectly but should see a pullback from the 122.20-40 area that has potential back to the 120.40-60 area once again. (February 26th)
ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS
We note a second potential Wave iii target at 121.85 and thus look for a peak between 121.62-85 and for Wave iv to pullback to the 50% retracement level around 120.76.
Wave iii ended at 121.62 and thus a 50% pullback in Wave iv rests at 120.65. Also bear in mind the 58.6% retracement at 120.48 though we doubt this will be seen. From this Wave iv low we will be able to generate a target for the end of Wave v and therefore Wave â€“a- of Wave â€“v-. The normal target is in the region of the old high (at 122.18) but may see a small overshoot towards 122.30-40 since the 61.8% projection does appear to suggest a target around 122.28-35.
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