Tuesday February 27, 2007 - 03:29:21 GMT
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FX-Strategy - www.fx-strategy.com
Daily Analysis for EURUSDPrice:
Resistance: 1.3204 ... 1.3230 ... 1.3262 ... 1.3280
Support: 1.3170 ... 1.3150 ... 1.3130 ... 1.3105
We need to be slightly cautious but the 1.3195 and 1.3219-36 areas still look heavy
While gains have been seen these have not been that strong and yesterdayâ€™s analysis basically still holds true. While 1.3150-70 supports we still feel there is risk for a move to the 1.3219-36 area but cautiously still look for this to cap. Thus a stronger bullish stance will require a break above 1.3236 and then 1.3257 to keep the upward momentum intact for an eventual test of 1.3296 and 1.3357-67.
Still no break of 1.3195 but there does appear risk that it may get broken by a little. Thus to be cautious wait for a break of 1.3219-36 â€“ then the next target will be the 1.3327-57 area. (February 26th)
The wave structure is a little messy but we still see weekly cycles pointing lower for a further 4-6 weeks and thus we still prefer to look for a peak to sell into. The most likely area seems to be in the 1.3219-36 area and while this holds, any reversal back below 1.3150-70 would encourage additional losses back to the 1.3080 area and while this should cause a pullback eventually we look for lower.
The 1.3195 resistance is being tested but we still see price as heavy. A move back below 1.3140 and then 1.3080 would generate losses back to 1.2940 and 1.2865-76 initially. (February 26th)
ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS
The mild break higher is concerning and thus we need watch for potential targets in Wave â€“c-. In this process we have had to re-label the 1.3080 low as Wave iv of Wave â€“c- and projections here provide Wave v targets at 1.3223 (61.8%) and 1.3235 (66.67%) which are most likely to hold.
Note projections for Wave â€“c- are at 1.3233 (223.6%) and 1.3280 (261.8%).
We feel this will complete Wave [x] and allow a return to the downside again with the first Wave [a] around the 1.2865-76 lows.
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