User Name: Password:      Register - Lost password?

Forex News Blog
Back to The Headlines
Friday August 13, 2004 - 20:23:58 GMT
DailyFX.com - www.dailyfx.com

Share This Story:
| | Email

Dollar Tanks on Weak US Data

DailyFX Forex Fundamentals 08-13-04

By Kathy Lien, Chief Fundamental Strategist

∑ Dollar Tanks on Weak US Data
∑ Shockingly Lackluster Q2 GDP Growth In Japan
∑ Slower Inflation in France and Softer Eurozone Q2 GDP

EURUSD

The euro rallied close to 200 pips today as the trend of weak data from the US continues. The conflicting message that the Federal Reserve and economic data are portraying has certainly baffled the markets. However, based upon todayís price action, the market appears to be putting stronger credence to the evidence that they seeing instead of the overly optimistic outlook from central bankers (more on the data in USDCHF section). The Eurozone itself is not fairing very well, but at this point, it should not be a shock that the euro has barely budged on slower inflation in France and weaker second quarter GDP growth in the Eurozone. The flash Q2 estimate increased 0.5% compared to the marketís expectation for 0.6%. Given yesterdayís stronger GDP reports from Germany and France, we know that growth in the big three (plus Italy) has been decent. The shortfall was a result of a contraction in the Netherlands and Greece. Generally speaking, the growth in the Eurozone has come primarily from strong foreign demand. This is really important because if the weaker growth in US and possibly in Japan (based solely upon the disappointing Q2 GDP report) persists, the recovery in the Eurozone could be at risk. The ECB is really stuck between a rock and a hard place. Based upon the economic data from the region, the ECB really does not have the option to raise rates, however, on the other hand, they are faced with rising inflation pressures as a result of soaring oil prices.

USDCHF

These days we are continually questioning what the justifications are for the higher consensus estimates. The University of Michigan Consumer Confidence report was released at 94 this morning, quite a bit below the marketís forecast for confidence to increase to 97.2. With a slowdown in hiring, gasoline prices taking a toll on the pocketbooks of consumers, and weak GDP growth, it would only be logical for consumers to be more pessimistic than optimistic. Not only are drivers paying more at the pump, their gas and electricity bills have also increased as a result of higher energy prices. In addition to weaker consumer confidence, producer prices also increased a less than expected 0.1% last month, while the trade balance for the month of June widened to a record -$55.8bln. Exports decreased 4.3%, while imports increased 3.3%. This will certainly hurt the revisions to Q2 GDP. However, the rally in the euro has become very extended in the past week, so we would not be surprised to see some profit taking at current levels.

GBPUSD

The British pound is just riding the dollar bear wave today as it rallies towards the top of its recent range. Traders should be wary of forgetting the recent negative data that we have seen from the United Kingdom. Next week should be no different. We start off Monday with the RICS house price balance. In the month of June, the RICS survey fell sharply from 44 to 17. Given the harsh warning by the Bank of England of a sharp deceleration in house prices, consensus estimates are for a further decline to 10. The only other release from the UK is retail sales on Thursday, which is also expected to dabble into negative territory. Although the BoE Inflation Report has given us plenty of insight into the central bankís updated outlook, on Wednesday, we are expecting the minutes from the monetary policy meeting earlier this month. It will be interesting to see how many members may have voted in favor of keeping rates unchanged, if any at all. Either way, it should confirm that the end of the UKís glorious tightening cycle is in sight.

USDJPY

The Japanese yen plummeted against the dollar in Asian trading following the release of a shockingly weak second quarter GDP report. The market had expected Q2 GDP to increase 1.0%, however to the disbelief of many, GDP rose a paltry 0.4%. On an annualized basis, GDP increased 1.7%, which was sharply lower than the marketís 4.2% estimate. The weakness was a result of weak capital spending and comes in complete contrast to the ongoing economic upturn and rising machinery orders. However, it is still too early to call an end to Japanís stellar growth based upon one set of data. Companies could be slowing down spending as higher oil prices hurt corporate profits and increase input costs.

 

Forex Trading News

Forex Research

Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



Elevate Your Trading With The Amazing Trader!

The Amazing Trader includes:
  • Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.
  • Live trading strategy sessions.
  • Market Updates with Trading Tools.

Register To Test Your Amazing Trader


Trading Ideas for 18 December 2017

Register for the Amazing Trader

1.

Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Mon 18 Dec
10:00 EZ- final HICP
Tue 19 Dec
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
13:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
13:30 US- Current Account
Wed 20 Dec
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
15:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 21 Dec
03:00 JP- BOJ Decision
13:30 CA- CPI & Retail Sales
13:30 US Weely Jobless
13:30 US- GDP
Fri 22 Dec
09:30 US- GB- GDP
13:30 US- core PCE Deflator & Presonal Income
15:00 US- New Homes Sales
15:00 US- final University of Michigan
17:00 US- early Closes
Mon 25 Dec
00:00 Christmas Holidays

Forex Trading Outlook


Potential Trading Opportunities

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Mon--10:00 GMT-- EZ- final November HICP. flash data are rarely changed.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium Tue --09:00 GMT-- DE- IFO Survey. Key report but usually not a market-mover
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium- Tue --13:30 GMT-- US- Housing Starts and Permits. Leading indicators of activity

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Wed --15:00-- US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing statistic
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium- Wed --15:30-- US- EIA Crude

John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points Updated

EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Free Forex Database updated




TRADER ADVOCACY ARTICLES

Trader's Advocate Articles..

pic

Retail Forex Brokerage Changing!

Are you looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are more critical things to consider than you might have thought.

We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.

Our Best Brokers listing section includes:Forex Broker Reviews, Forex Broker Directory, Forex Broker Comparisons and advice on How to Choose a Forex Broker

If would like guidance, advice, or have any concerns at all ASK US. We are here to help you.

SEE Our Best Brokers List

Currency Trading Tools

  • Live rates, currency news, fx charts. 

  • Research reports and currency forecasts.

  • Foreign Exchange database and history.

  • Weekly economic calendar.

Directory of  Forex trading tools

 
Terms of Use    Disclaimer    Privacy Policy    Contact    Site Map


Forex Forum
Forex Trading Forum
Forex Forum + forex rates
Forex Forum Archives
Forex Forum RSS
Free Registration

Trading Forums
Currency Forum Guide
Forum Directory
Open Forum
Futures Forum
Political Forum
Forex Brokers
Compare Forex Brokers
Forex Broker News
Forex Broker Hotline

Online Forex Trading
Forex Trading Tools
Currency Trading Tools
Forex Database
FX Chart Points
Risk/Carry Trade Chart Points
Economic Calendar
Quicklinks to Economic Data
Currency Futures Swaps
Fibonacci Calculator
Currency Futures Calculator

Forex Education
Forex Learning Center
FX Trading Basics Course
Forex Trading Course
Forex Trading Handbook

Forex Analysis
Forex Forecasts
Interest Rate Forecasts
Central Bank Forecasts

FX Charts and Quotes
Live FX Rates
Live Global Market Quotes
Live Forex Charts
US Dollar Index Chart
Global Chart Gallery
Daily Market Tracker
Forex News
Forex Blog
Forex News
Forex Blog Archives
Forex News RSS
Forex Services
Forex Products
GVI Forex
Free Trials
FX Bookstore
FX Jobs and Careers
Jobs USA
Jobs UK
Jobs Canada

Forex Forum

The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.

Forex News

The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.

Currency Trading

Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.

Forex Brokers

The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.

Forex Trading

Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.

FX Trading

Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.

Forex Blog

Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.

 

WARNING: FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING AND INVESTMENT IN DERIVATIVES CAN BE VERY SPECULATIVE AND MAY RESULT IN LOSSES AS WELL AS PROFITS. FOREIGN EXCHANGE AND DERIVATIVES TRADING IS NOT SUITABLE FOR MANY MEMBERS OF THE PUBLIC AND ONLY RISK CAPITAL SHOULD BE APPLIED. THE WEBSITE DOES NOT TAKE INTO ACCOUNT SPECIAL INVESTMENT GOALS, THE FINANCIAL SITUATION OR SPECIFIC REQUIREMENTS OF INDIVIDUAL USERS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR FINANCIAL SITUATION AND CONSULT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISORS AS TO THE SUITABILITY TO YOUR SITUATION PRIOR TO MAKING ANY INVESTMENT OR ENTERING INTO ANY TRANSACTIONS.

Copyright ©1996-2014 Global-View. All Rights Reserved.
Hosting and Development by Blue 105