Wednesday February 28, 2007 - 05:37:32 GMT
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FX-Strategy - www.fx-strategy.com
Daily Analysis for USDCHFPrice:
Resistance: 1.2221 ... 1.2237 ... 1.2253 ... 1.2280
Support: 1.2162 ... 1.2142 ... 1.2125 ... 1.2103
Mixed â€“ waiting for breaks
The collapse through not only 1.2279 but also 1.2226 has led to a larger decline and thus we need be careful. There does appear to be risk of additional corrective gains and while 1.2162 supports this should move above 1.2221 to the 1.2237-53 area which we feel should cap. Thus a stronger bullish stance will require a break above 1.2260 and if seen would assist price back higher towards the 1.2295-05 pivot area which should cap.
It was a large drop but before we follow this there is likely to be additional losses. Above 1.2200-20 would bring back a more bullish picture for a return to 1.25+. (February 28th)
Loss of the 1.2226 support indeed saw losses to the bottom end of the 1.2145-67 support area. Indeed, this doesnâ€™t look like it is complete but we may just see a correction back to the 1.2237-53 area before the next leg lower. Take care as we may just see a larger sideways correction. Back below 1.2162 assists lower while loss of yesterdayâ€™s 1.2142 low would imply losses to 1.2103 and probably the 1.2026-43 area which we tentatively feel will hold.
Loss of 1.2226 has seen test of 1.2145. Now whether this can get all the way back to 1.1878 seems unlikely. Watch the 1.2026-43 area and only below there triggers additional losses to 1.1878. (February 28th)
ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS
Clearly yesterdayâ€™s decline means that we need to re-label the wave count. We are doubtful that this means a retest of 1.1878 and in the daily picture we feel there is a risk of an ABC move higher from 1.1878 with 1.2576 being Wave A and this move as Wave B that should end around 1.2026-43, possibly a little higher.
Within the decline from 1.2576 we feel we have seen an initial abc wave with Wave x at 1.2436 and from there it appears that a 5 wave pattern lower developing.
We are still investigating and will update but note the above support.
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