Sunday August 15, 2004 - 09:14:42 GMT
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Forex: Daily Forecast for the U.S. Dollar vs Japanese Yen 16th August 2004Price 110.65
Resistance: 110.85 ... 111.20 ... 111.45 ... 111.65
Support....: 110.55 ... 110.35 ... 110.10 ... 109.80
Remaining above 110.35-55 for a pullback to 111.20
Price failed to move through the 112.10 resistance and reversed sharply to 110.46. However, we feel this decline has probably reached its full course and should remain above 110.35-55 to trigger a pullback towards 111.20 at least. We feel this may hold on the day and only a break here would allow the correction to bite deeper to 111.45-70 which should hold if seen.
The reversal from 112.07 appears to have either ended at 110.44 or has potential to 110.35 only. Thus we are reluctant to follow a bearish stance unless a clean break is made of 110.30-35. Should this be seen then losses should extend to the next support area at 109.60-80.
Elliott Wave Comments:
16th August 2004
The failure for price to reach 112.46 takes the weight of probability off the scenario calling for a flat correction to 112.46. However, until the 110.40 level is broken cleanly there is still chance that Friday's dip was merely a Wave -x- within a Double Zig-Zag rally. However, we feel the decline on Friday came in 5 waves which has more bearish implications. However, where there is some ambiguity and the prior Wave b at 110.40 remains intact, it is likely we shall see some recovery higher at first.
Thus we need to see how this recovery develops to provide us with a better idea of the wave structure. Assuming this rally fails, any drop below 111.35-40 would imply further losses down to 108.55 and probably 107.60 as we revert to complete Wave -C- of a larger triangle.
(c) FX-Strategy Inc 2004
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