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Thursday March 1, 2007 - 09:57:04 GMT
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Who's figured out the signals?

Key News
• Yen Falls a Second Day on Speculation Demand for Riskier Assets to Rise – Bloomberg
• U.K. Pound Records Biggest Monthly Decline Versus Euro in Almost a Year -- Bloomberg

Key Reports Due (WSJ):

8:30a.m. Feb Challenger Layoffs. Previous: +15.2%.
8:30a.m. Initial Jobless Claims. Expected: -7K. Previous: -27K.
8:30a.m. Jan Personal Income. Expected: +0.3%. Previous: +0.5%.
8:30a.m. Jan Personal Spending. Expected: +0.4%. Previous: +0.7%.
10:00a.m. DJ-BTMU Business Barometer For Feb 17. Previous: -0.2%.
10:00a.m. Feb ISM Manufacturing Business Index. Expected: 50.0. Previous: 49.3.
10:00a.m. Jan Construction Spending. Expected: -0.4%. Previous: -0.4%.
N/A Feb Auto Sales. Expected: 16.1M. Previous: 16.7M.


“There’s no crying in forex trading!”

John Ross Crooks III
(Adapted from A League of Their Own, “There’s no crying in baseball!”

FX Trading – Who’s figured out the signals?

After hearing all the jawboning about Tuesday’s global market meltdown we just assume give you all a break and talk about something entirely unrelated. After all, how many people are aware that yesterday was the first official day of Major League Baseball’s Spring Training 2007?

Exactly our point.

Being down in south Florida, deep in the heart of the Grapefruit League spring training facilities, we’d love to get you all hyped up about the upcoming season. It’s hard to push our minds away from the diamond but let’s face it – there’s so much going on this week we’d feel bad cutting you off from your daily dose of “What’s next for the markets?” with our preseason predictions (hopes and dreams) of which teams are destined for this year’s Fall Classic (Florida Marlins).

So instead of dusting off our mitts just yet we’re going to try to make something of the markets this morning.

The unemployment rate in the euro-zone declined to record lows of 7.4% in February. Confidence in the European economy is growing. And despite an indication this week that inflation in the region might be slowing, key players are calling for the European Central Bank to increase borrowing rates in the coming months.

This week could tell the tale for monetary policy in the U.S. That’s because a lot of data released in the past few days point to an economy that’s running uphill. For instance:

* Durable goods orders sank lower.

* The Commerce Department said GDP grew at an annual rate of only 2.2% after original estimates had been set at a much stronger 3.5%.

* New home sales plunged by more than 16% in January – far exceeding the estimated drawdown.

If the U.S. economy takes a turn downhill it doesn’t bode well for strict monetary policy and, thus, the U.S. dollar. That’s especially the case when Europe is going strong and talking up rate hikes. And if the U.S. economy struggles wouldn’t that mean much of the same for Japan?

Let’s face it, Japan is no model of sturdy growth these days. The U.S. is a large part of the little momentum Japan’s economy has actually got going. That relationship will remain a critical one as Japan seeks to emerge from the deflationary shadows. But it’s hard to see the money spigot get turned off when the BOJ can’t form any basis for tightening up on rates on Japan’s domestic growth prospects either (retail sales fell for a third straight month in January.)

If the carry trade lives on then it’s back to smooth sailing for the Aussie, Kiwi, euro, and even the pound. Not so smooth for the mighty dollar.

We’ll sit back for now and enjoy our peanuts and cracker jacks. We’ll wait to see if liquidity is at risk of drying up or even see if risk-taking is at risk of drying up. That might tell us whether or not the yen is headed back to its lows or if the dollar might actually find some support … anywhere.

Play ball!

John Ross Crooks III


Forex Trading News

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Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

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Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."

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10:00 EZ- final HICP
Tue 19 Dec
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
13:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
13:30 US- Current Account
Wed 20 Dec
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
15:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 21 Dec
03:00 JP- BOJ Decision
13:30 CA- CPI & Retail Sales
13:30 US Weely Jobless
13:30 US- GDP
Fri 22 Dec
09:30 US- GB- GDP
13:30 US- core PCE Deflator & Presonal Income
15:00 US- New Homes Sales
15:00 US- final University of Michigan
17:00 US- early Closes
Mon 25 Dec
00:00 Christmas Holidays

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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium Tue --09:00 GMT-- DE- IFO Survey. Key report but usually not a market-mover
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium- Tue --13:30 GMT-- US- Housing Starts and Permits. Leading indicators of activity

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Wed --15:00-- US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing statistic
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium- Wed --15:30-- US- EIA Crude

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