User Name: Password:      Register - Lost password?

Forex News Blog
Back to The Headlines
Thursday March 1, 2007 - 22:43:23 GMT -

Share This Story:
| | Email

Forex - US Dollar – 100 Percent Chance of a Rate Cut by October?

FXCM - DailyFX FUndamentals 03-01-07

By Kathy Lien, Chief Strategist of

• US Dollar – 100 Percent Chance of a Rate Cut by October?
• Euro Weakens on the Back of Stronger US Data
• Japanese Yen - Carry Trade Liquidation Continues to Drive Yen Pairs Lower

US Dollar - The US dollar strengthened today, but if you ask anyone trading the currency market, they will tell you that it certainly doesn’t feel that way. The market’s primary focus is on the Japanese Yen, which has once against skyrocketed against everything in sight and reigniting talk of carry trade liquidation in the process. The Yen is now trading at a fresh 10 week high against the US dollar. The Dow, after having opened down over 200 points, staged a very impressive intraday rally that took it into positive territory, but for no more than a blink of eye before the index turned back into the red. For those able to peel themselves away from the big moves in the Yen, they would have noticed that the dollar strengthened against every other major currency pair. The most meaningful appreciation was against the New Zealand dollar, Australian dollar and the Euro. A dose of stronger US economic data has helped to stabilize the dollar and delay the market’s expectations for an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve. Right now Fed Fund futures are pricing in a 100 percent chance of a quarter of a point rate cut by October. Earlier this morning, the market was showing a 100 percent chance of a cut by August. To the surprise of the market, personal income, personal spending, personal consumption expenditures and the ISM manufacturing survey all came out stronger than expected this morning. Both the Chicago PMI and Philly Fed index failed to correctly forecast the directional improvement in the ISM. On balance, these reports indicate that inflation is ticking higher and that certain parts of the US economy may not be weakening as significantly as some people may have initially thought. Although we could see a rebound in both the Dow and USD/JPY tomorrow given the lack of any meaningful US data, it will be difficult for either to recapture the losses that they have incurred this week. In fact, the longer term trend in both could still be downwards. The only piece of US data on the calendar is the final University of Michigan Consumer Confidence survey for the month of February. The problems that that the market was concerned about on Tuesday are still the problems that they will have to face in the weeks or months to come. The sub-prime lending market is at a tipping point, which will keep US investors very cautious.

Euro – For the second day in a row, the Euro has lost value against the US dollar. This time however, there was weaker Eurozone economic data to support the move. Eurozone manufacturing PMI increased from 55.5 to a less than expected 55.6, due to a drop in the German index. Both the French and Italian PMI indices accelerated in the month of February. Even though French producer prices for January and Italian consumer prices for February were stronger than expected, the Eurozone CPI estimate slipped form 1.9 percent to 1.8 percent. Even though the CPI estimate has been below the ECB’s target for a few months now, the central bank has played down the current state of inflation in favor of future inflationary conditions. The Euro is looking very vulnerable right now ahead of the Germany retail sales and Eurozone PPI numbers tomorrow morning. Domestic spending in Germany is expected to drop after rising a very impressive 2.4 percent the prior month. With no significant US data on the calendar tomorrow, Eurozone data will be particularly important.

British Pound – The British pound is weaker against both the US dollar and Japanese Yen, but stronger against the Euro. Economic data released this morning was mixed with a sharp rise in manufacturing PMI and an increase in mortgage approvals offset by a drop in the CBI distributive trades survey and a drop in net lending securities on dwellings. Money supply growth came out right in line with expectations. Inflation risks still remain to the upside, but for the time being, the Bank of England has no reason to stray away from their plans to leave monetary policy and interest rates on hold for the time being. UK Construction sector PMI is the only piece of UK data on the calendar tomorrow. The stability of the housing market should keep the index well in expansionary territory.

Japanese Yen – After a brief pause, the Japanese Yen resumed its rally as traders continued to liquidate out of their carry trades. This week’s big moves have made investors in the global markets much more risk averse which means that they will be reluctant to jump back into their long positions. With the Fed Fund futures pricing in a 100 percent chance of a rate cut, the market is clearly looking for slower US growth, which will make the US dollar (against the Yen) a far less attractive carry investment. At the same time, Japanese corporations will continue to repatriate yen back into their home country ahead of their fiscal year end. Whether or not the Yen will continue to rally will be contingent about how Japanese data fares this evening. The economic calendar is extremely busy with consumer prices, unemployment data, labor cash earnings and the PCE-Overall household spending reports due for release. Given the significance of spending and inflation data, any surprises will trigger a sharp move in the Yen.

Commodity Currencies (CAD, AUD, NZD) – The Commodity Currencies are all weaker against the US dollar today as carry trade liquidation takes a hit at the high yielders. The New Zealand dollar has suffered the most with the currency slipping over one percent against the dollar. Commodity prices are mixed with crude prices unchanged and gold prices slightly lower. Overnight, New Zealand reported weaker visitor arrivals while Australia reported the strongest manufacturing PMI index in 4 years. Unfortunately that strength gave way to a disappointing fourth quarter expenditures data. Looking ahead, we have Australian retail sales, current account and PCE reports due for release along with Canadian GDP and consumer spending tomorrow morning. Australian consumer depend is expected to be strong thanks to the stability of the overall economy. Canadian GDP is also expected to reflect the upside surprises in fourth quarter data that we saw throughout the month of January.


Forex Trading News

Forex Research

Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."

Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.

Register To Test Your Amazing Trader

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 23 July 2018
A 14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
Tue 24 July 2018
AFlash PMIs
Wed 25 July 2018
A 08:00 DE- IFO Survey
A 14:00 US- New Homes Sales
A 14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 26 July 2018
AA 11:45 EZ- European Central Bank Decision
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
A 12:30 US- Durable Goods
Fri 27 July 2018
AA 12:30 US- GDP
A 14:00 US- Final University of Michigan

John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner,

Global-View Affiliate Program

We are starting an affiliate program to market some of our products.

Send me an email if you would be interested or if you know someone who would like to be an affiliate. Generous commissions payout for those accepted.

Put the word "affiliate" in the email subject line.

Contact us

Start trading with forex broker Markets Cube

Max McKegg's Daily Forex Trading Forecasts

Veteran FX Trader, Max McKegg, forecasts all the Major currencies and the Australasians; providing Daily and Medium Term Trading forecasts to subscribers, who include large Banks the world over, as well as individual traders in more than 30 different countries.

Request a TRIAL of Max's Forex Service.


Retail Forex Brokerage Changing!

Are you looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are more critical things to consider than you might have thought.

We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.

Our Best Brokers listing section includes:Forex Broker Reviews, Forex Broker Directory, Forex Broker Comparisons and advice on How to Choose a Forex Broker

If would like guidance, advice, or have any concerns at all ASK US. We are here to help you.

SEE Our Best Brokers List

Currency Trading Tools

  • Live rates, currency news, fx charts. 

  • Research reports and currency forecasts.

  • Foreign Exchange database and history.

  • Weekly economic calendar.

Directory of  Forex trading tools

Terms of Use    Disclaimer    Privacy Policy    Contact    Site Map

Forex Forum
Forex Trading Forum
Forex Forum + forex rates
Forex Forum Archives
Forex Forum RSS
Free Registration

Trading Forums
Currency Forum Guide
Forum Directory
Open Forum
Futures Forum
Political Forum
Forex Brokers
Compare Forex Brokers
Forex Broker News
Forex Broker Hotline

Online Forex Trading
Forex Trading Tools
Currency Trading Tools
Forex Database
FX Chart Points
Risk/Carry Trade Chart Points
Economic Calendar
Quicklinks to Economic Data
Currency Futures Swaps
Fibonacci Calculator
Currency Futures Calculator

Forex Education
Forex Learning Center
FX Trading Basics Course
Forex Trading Course
Forex Trading Handbook

Forex Analysis
Forex Forecasts
Interest Rate Forecasts
Central Bank Forecasts

FX Charts and Quotes
Live FX Rates
Live Global Market Quotes
Live Forex Charts
US Dollar Index Chart
Global Chart Gallery
Daily Market Tracker
Forex News
Forex Blog
Forex News
Forex Blog Archives
Forex News RSS
Forex Services
Forex Products
GVI Forex
Free Trials
FX Bookstore
FX Jobs and Careers
Jobs USA
Jobs UK
Jobs Canada

Forex Forum

The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.

Forex News

The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.

Currency Trading

Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by

Forex Brokers

The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.

Forex Trading

Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.

FX Trading

Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.

Forex Blog also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.



By using this website, you are agreeing to our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use, and Cookie Policy

Copyright ©1996-2014 Global-View. All Rights Reserved.
Hosting and Development by Blue 105