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Friday March 2, 2007 - 08:10:37 GMT
Black Swan Capital - www.blackswantrading.com

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Betting on more to come

Key News

• Japan's consumer prices were flat for the first time in eight months in January. (Reuters)

Key Reports Due (WSJ):
• 10:00am. End-Feb Reuters/U Of Mich Consumer Sentiment Index. Expected: 93.3. Previous: 93.3.

Quotable
“In physics you are playing against God, who does not change his mind very often. In finance, you are playing against God’s creatures, whose feelings are ephemeral, at best unstable, and the news on which they are based keeps streaming in.”

E. Derman

FX Trading – Betting on more to come…

A quick rant to start the morning:

With all due respect to CNBC, I know they have to fill space (I’ve been on the program), but my reasons for not watching it much were validated this week as one airhead “analyst” after another trotted out to tell us that it’s time to buy stocks again. And even if now isn’t the time to buy, it’s close because this “correction” is almost over one after another blathered. It’s painful watching that pabulum. (That being said, my bows to Rick Santelli—he is a truly brilliant guy who never disappoints and understands this game in real gut-level depth and can explain it in plain English. He alone is worth the price of admission.)

Many of the CNBC talkers, blindsided by the Black Swan event this week, tell us that “economic fundamentals are solid, so I’d be a buyer on any dips.” Dips is right!

A Fooled by Randomness Constant from Nassim Taleb:

“An overestimation of the accuracy of their beliefs in some measure, either economic or statistical.

They never considered that the fact that trading on economic variables that has worked in the past may have been merely coincidental, or, perhaps even worse, the economic analysis was fit to past events to mask the random element in it. Carlos entered the market at a time when it worked, but he never tested for periods when markets did the opposite of sound economic analysis. There were periods when economics failed traders, and others when it helped them.

The U.S. dollar was overpriced (i.e. foreign currencies were undervalued) in the early 1980s. Traders who used their economic intuitions and bought foreign currencies were wiped out. But later those who did so got rich (members of the first crop were bust). It is random! Likewise, those who ‘shorted’ Japanese stocks in the late 1980s suffered the same fate—few survived to recoup their losses during the collapse of the 1990s. At the time of writing, there is a group of operators called ‘macro’ traders who are dropping like flies, with ‘legendary’ (rather, lucky) investor Julian Robertson closing shop in 2000 after having been a star until then. Our discussion of survivorship bias will enlighten us further, but, clearly, there is nothing less rigorous than their seemingly rigorous use of economic analysis to trade.”

Bingo! Thank you Mr. Taleb!

Doubtful this thing is over. Though economic theory, and the bell curve would tell us otherwise, bad days tend to come in bunches—consider these “bursts of dependence.”

Dow Jones Industrial Average Weekly:








USDJPY Weekly chart:








Comparing the two price series....drum roll please………………………………


Dow Jones Industrial Average vs. USDJPY:



Maybe we will learn just how much the U.S. stock market was funded by the yen carry trade or something like that.


Jack Crooks

 

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Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Mon 18 Dec
10:00 EZ- final HICP
Tue 19 Dec
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
13:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
13:30 US- Current Account
Wed 20 Dec
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
15:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 21 Dec
03:00 JP- BOJ Decision
13:30 CA- CPI & Retail Sales
13:30 US Weely Jobless
13:30 US- GDP
Fri 22 Dec
09:30 US- GB- GDP
13:30 US- core PCE Deflator & Presonal Income
15:00 US- New Homes Sales
15:00 US- final University of Michigan
17:00 US- early Closes
Mon 25 Dec
00:00 Christmas Holidays

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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Mon--10:00 GMT-- EZ- final November HICP. flash data are rarely changed.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium Tue --09:00 GMT-- DE- IFO Survey. Key report but usually not a market-mover
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium- Tue --13:30 GMT-- US- Housing Starts and Permits. Leading indicators of activity

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Wed --15:00-- US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing statistic
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium- Wed --15:30-- US- EIA Crude

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