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Friday March 2, 2007 - 11:00:03 GMT
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Forex Research - Mellon FX Daily - U.S. Edition

Mellon FX Daily 05:50 EST

Key Points
• Global market sentiment remains fragile – JPY still favoured in the short-term.
• Japanese data last night also mildly JPY supportive, with CPI steady & consumer spending rebounding.
• EUR-USD still at risk from position adjustment –1.3140-50 key area to look at today.
• Quiet release schedule today, with Canadian GDP and US Michigan sentiment the main features.

Market Outlook

Not much has changed overnight, with FX markets paying close attention to what is happening in global markets and the implications this has for risk appetites – the latter being crucial for ‘carry trades’ and positioning in general. The JPY has remained firm through the night after strengthening yesterday and any corrective responses to this theme are likely to be limited for now. There remains a high risk of further equity weakness through the course of next week, given the psychological damage inflicted by the scale of this week’s price action and any residual short JPY positioning will be easy prey in such an environment.

Even last night’s Japanese data releases were net positive for the JPY. The core measure of CPI the BoJ looks at, which excludes fresh foods, remained at zero y/y, although CPI ex-food and energy edged up to -0.2% from -0.3% and consumer spending came out stronger than expected. Given the volatility of the consumer data it is too early to get excited about a sudden trend recovery, but it certainly adds credibility to the latest BoJ rate hike. 116.70 is the next support area on USDJPY, although there is risk down to 114.60-115.00.

Yesterday’s stronger than expected manufacturing ISM number helped the USD to rally against the EUR, although the data also played on the excessive positioning that still seems to be in place on EUR-USD. Indeed, the latter suggests some additional downside risk in the short-term, but 1.3140-50 (which held this morning with a low of 1.3142) needs to break to trigger the next decent move.

German retail sales data released this morning showed a sharper than expected 5.1% fall in January. A weak number had been expected because of the VAT hike, although this data series is extremely volatile at the best of times so it is difficult to interpret anything definitive from this report. It certainly shouldn’t be taken as an indication of a likely trend downturn in German consumer spending.

Australian retail sales were stronger than expected, although this has not been able to support the AUD. The Q4 current account deficit was slightly higher than expected and more significantly, sentiment remains negative towards currencies like the AUD given the reining in of risk appetites. Risk to 0.7700-50 over the week ahead.

Day Ahead
Canada – monthly and quarterly GDP data is released, although CAD impact could be limited with the market focused on other things. Furthermore, recent data has generally been more favourable and the market has already absorbed this.

US – the University of Michigan measure of national consumer sentiment is due and is unlikely to pick up any impact from the recent malaise in the stock market. Both the Conference Board measure and weekly consumer sentiment readings have been strong recently and this is also likely to be the case with today’s data.

Data/event EDT Consensus*

US Fed’s Poole on energy prices and the business cycle 12.00
CA GDP (Q4) saar 13.30 +1.4%
CA GDP (Dec) m/m 13.30 +0.5%
TR CPI (Feb) y/y 14.30 +10.2%
US Michigan sentiment (Feb, fin) 15.00 93.5

Latest data Actual Consensus*
JP CPI Tokyo ex-fresh food (Feb) y/y 0.0% +0.1%
JP CPI Nat ex-fresh food (Jan) y/y 0.0% 0.0%
JP CPI Nat ex-food & energy (Jan) y/y -0.2% -0.3% last
JP Unemployment rate (Jan) 4.0% 4.1%
JP Job-to-applicants ratio (Jan) 1.06 1.08
JP Overall PCE (Jan) m/m +1.4% -0.6% last
JP Overall PCE (Jan) y/y +0.6% -0.3%
JP Monetary base (Feb) y/y -21.1% -21.5%
AU Retail trade (Jan) m/m +0.9% +0.5%
AU Current account (Q4) -A$15.1bn -A$14bn
JP Labour earnings (Jan) y/y -1.4% +0.5%
DE Retail sales (Jan) m/m -5.1% -1.5%
NO PMI manu (Feb) 59.2 55.2 last
EU PPI (Jan) y/y +2.9% +3.1%
* Consensus unless stated

2005, Mellon Financial Corporation Note: Although obtained from sources believed by us to be reliable, Mellon Financial Corporation and its affiliates cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information upon which this report is based. This report does not purport to disclose the risks or benefits of entering into particular transactions and should not be construed as advice in any specific instance. The views in this report constitute our judgement as of this date and are subject to change without notice.
Ian Gunner 44 20 7163 5996 06.40 EDT Monday May 31 2005


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