Monday March 5, 2007 - 05:28:27 GMT
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FX-Strategy - www.fx-strategy.com
Daily Analysis for USDCADPrice:
Resistance: 1.1786 ... 1.1808 ... 1.1830 ... 1.1850
Support: 1.1765 ... 1.1740 ... 1.1719 ... 1.1705
We look for the 1.1786-1.1811 area to cap and for a reversal back lower
1.1705 supported and we have seen our target area achieved. Still we need be aware of the risk of the upside expending just a little more to the 1.1805-11 area but feel this would cap if seen. Thus a stronger bullish stance requires a break above 1.1811 and if seen would trigger additional gains towards the 1.1850-75 highs.
The longer term still looks bearish but we may need to allow for a move to the 1.1771-00 area at least. However, only above here would begin to threaten the 1.1850-75 highs again. (March 1st)
We feel we are very close to a peak here and we should allow for the gains to reach the 1.1805-11 area but very soon we shall expect a reversal back lower. 1.1765 supports and if this breaks then the risk may reverse quickly for 1.1740 and probably the 1.1705-19 area which should stall the decline for a correction. Below signals extension to 1.1670-84.
We now look for the 1.1786-1.1806 area to cap and for a reversal back lower to 1.1656-85 at least, possibly 1.1619 from where a second move higher is expected. (March 5th)
ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS
While yesterdayâ€™s high could be the end of Wave v higher which will imply a larger correction we still have 61.8%-76.4% projections in Wave v at 1.1780-1.1805 and if seen this area should cap in Wave â€“a- and cause a larger pullback in Wave â€“b-.
We feel that Wave â€“a- will complete in the 1.1786-1.1805 area and thus look for a pullback in Wave â€“b- which could move as deep as the 76.4% retracement which should come in around 1.1619-56.
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