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Monday August 16, 2004 - 10:52:02 GMT
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US OPEN MARKET POINTS 08-16-04



An unsurprisingly quiet night as we have no economic data from Japan or Europe or UK. “The fundamental issue in Japan is whether or not the Q2 GDP report released on Friday foreshadows a more significant slowdown,” asks today’s Goldman Sachs research. “We think not,” they continue. “Although capital spending was much weaker-than-expected in the second quarter, forward looking indicators, including machinery orders, point to a firm underlying trend of business investment.” We tend to agree. The more troublesome aspect of Friday’s GDP was the paltry 0.1% contribution of domestic demand. Dealers, therefore, will keep a keen eye on this Friday’s Convenience Store Retail Sales report for further evidence that the Japanese consumer is truly coming back. Last weeks Consumer Confidence numbers from Japan surprised to the upside (48.7 vs. 45.5 projected) with gains in both employment and income expectations. If this weeks Convenience Store Retail Sales report were to show an increase, it would present solid economic support to last weeks polling data and strengthen the bullish case for the yen.

Meanwhile, the euro appears to be trading more as the “anti-dollar” rather than as an expression of it own fundamental strength. After reporting slightly disappointing 0.5% GDP growth on Friday it gained 200 points due to dollar weakness following the miserable Trade Balance number. Tonight it is seeping some of its gains back as it breaks support at 1.2350 on slow but steady selling from London. However, the euro strength may return by the New York open if the Empire State Manufacturing data prints materially worse than the already lowered expectations of 32.15. More importantly, traders will await the 13:00 GMT release of US Treasury’s International Capital Systems report which in light of Friday’s horrible Trade Balance data of -$55Bn vs. -$46Bn expected, takes on a much greater significance. Specifically, market participants will want to see capital inflows of at least $57Bn to offset the negative Trade Balance figures. Furthermore, traders will also want to see an increase of foreign net inflows into equity rather than fixed income investments. However, few dealers expect the data to be so accommodating given the recent decline in the US equity markets. A poor TIC report would further aggravate the dollar and could push the euro towards breaking the 1.2400 handle.


Key Overnight Developments

- JPY Nikkei down 0.7% for third straight day in a row as investors fear slowdown in growth after Friday’s GDP disappointment
- EUR European stocks steady as Chavez wins vote and calms oil markets

FX Spot Overnight

- EUR trades down to 2335 off slow and steady selling from London
- JPY targets 111 once more as oil rise and Nikkei sell off weigh on the cross
- GBP momentarily dips below 84 but pops back up to 8440 on strong demand
- CHF catatonic trading 2404-2430 as Venezuela risks recede

Upcoming Events

12:30GMT – (8:30 AM EST) USD Empire State Manufacturing (m/m) (August) Expected at 32.15, Previous 36.54
12:30GMT – (8:30 AM EST) CAD New Motor Vehicle Sales Expected at –2.0%, Previous –3.2%
17:00GMT – (1:00 PM EST) USD NAHB Housing Market Index (July) Expected at 66, Previous 67
23:50GMT – (7:30 PM ST) GBP RICS House Price Survey Expected at 10, Previous 17

 

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Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



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