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Tuesday March 6, 2007 - 11:40:03 GMT
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Forex Research - Mellon FX Daily - U.S. Edition

Mellon FX Daily 06:00 EST

Key Points
• Price action suggests a weakening of the JPY today.
• Many may see any JPY weakening as a second chance to get out of old positioning, so a volatile backdrop is likely to remain in the week ahead.
• US unit labour costs, pending home sales, BoC policy outcome feature today.

Market Outlook

A turbulent 24 hours, but for the first time during this period of JPY appreciation there have been signs of stabilisation. The lack of downside follow through yesterday after the Asian sell-off was the first signal and while the JPY did re-strengthen just after the US close last night (touching 115.22 on USD-JPY and 221.13 on GBP-JPY) both bounced sharply in Asia.

Key now will be whether these rates can hang on to the territory gained and the ability of USD-JPY to stay above 116.25 and GBP-JPY above 223.80 in Europe was significant. 152.25 has similar significance on EUR-JPY. A further recovery looks likely during the rest of today (117.50 USD-JPY, 227.75 GBP-JPY, 153.80 EUR-JPY), although a sustained rally could be difficult. Given the speed of the recent move in the JPY’s favour, many may view any weakening in the JPY as a second chance to liquidate. Overall, further volatility looks likely in the week ahead, but for the most part, today should see some JPY weakening.

The implications for EUR-USD are slightly mixed, although if the recent rise in risk aversion were to abate somewhat, this may actually boost confidence in holding on to EUR-USD longs, so modest upside could be seen.

Day Ahead
US – unit labour costs, factory orders and pending home sales are released this afternoon. The unit labour costs number is the final one for Q4 and will take account of the recent revision to GDP. In that report, GDP was revised down and wages were high, suggesting a strong costs number today. Factory orders will show whether any revisions have been made to the very soft durable orders numbers released last week. Pending home sales rose sharply last month (+4.9%) and the market is looking for a modest pullback.

Canada – the Bank of Canada meets but an unchanged policy outcome and unchanged policy message seem likely. At their last meeting in January they were quite happy to forecast steady growth in 2007 and since that time most of the Canadian data has been good.

Data/event EDT Consensus*

US Chain store sls (w/e Mar 3) w/w 07.45 +0.2%
US Productivity (Q4, 2nd est) saar 08.30 +1.7%
US Unit lab costs (Q4, 2nd est) saar 08.30 +3.2%
CA Building permits (Jan) m/m 08.30 +1.7%
US Redbook sls (w/e Mar 3) m/m 08.55 -1.2%
CA BoC policy announcement 09.00 unch
US Pending home sales (Jan) 10.00 -1.2%
US Factory orders (Jan) m/m 10.00 -4.0%
US Fed’s Plosser spks 13.00
US Bernanke speaks on GSEs 14.00
US ABC consumer conf (w/e Mar 4) 17.00 -1 last
AU RBA rate announcement 17.30 unch
AU RBA’s Edey speaks 19.10
AU GDP (Q4) q/q 19.30 +0.5%

Latest data Actual Consensus*
AU Trade balance (Jan) -A$0.9bn -A$1.1bn
AU Building approvals (Jan) m/m -0.9% +0.5%
CH GDP (Q4) saar +0.5% +0.7%
EU Retail sales (Jan) m/m -1.0% -0.4%
EU GDP (Q4, 2nd est) q/q +0.9% +0.9%
GB BRC retail survey (Feb) y/y +3.3% +3.1% last
* Consensus unless stated

2005, Mellon Financial Corporation Note: Although obtained from sources believed by us to be reliable, Mellon Financial Corporation and its affiliates cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information upon which this report is based. This report does not purport to disclose the risks or benefits of entering into particular transactions and should not be construed as advice in any specific instance. The views in this report constitute our judgement as of this date and are subject to change without notice.


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