Wednesday March 7, 2007 - 04:56:34 GMT
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FX-Strategy - www.fx-strategy.com
Daily Analysis for USDJPYPrice:
Resistance: 116.88 ... 117.12 ... 117.34 ... 117.54
Support: 116.13 ... 115.82 ... 115.57 ... 115.16
Cautiously while 116.08-19 supports there can still be direct gains to 117.82+ else see a dip first
Gains seen as expected which stalled just short of 116.93 from where a sharp correction has been seen. While this remains above 116.08-19 there is still a directly bullish structure. A move back above 116.50-70 will generate further strength to retest 116.88 and while a pullback is possible this should eventually lead to a move to 117.82 at least and potentially to around the 118.10-20 area.
The 114.75-115.25 area has held thus far and cautiously we feel a slow choppy grind higher is possible to above 120 but should then turn lower again. (March 7th)
Gains have been broadly in line with expectations and thus only a break below 116.00-10 would imply a more choppy correction. If break is seen watch supports at 115.82 and 115.57 with the lower expected to hold. Any breach of this lower support would threaten a retest of the 115.16 low but at this point we feel it still may well hold. Next larger support is around the 114.42 major low.
The 116.25 support gave way and this implies a base around 115.20-25 and max 114.75-85. Thus only below here would see losses continue towards 113.20-40. (March 5th)
ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS
The rally so far is not too clear although we suspect the move to 116.66 was a Wave i which is being followed by a shallow expanded flat in Wave ii. This would imply a 138.2% Wave iii projection around 118.00-10. However, do keep an eye on the 117.82 Wave b resistance also.
Any break below the 116.09 area (being a 38.2% correction in Wave ii) would suggest an alternative pattern with yesterdayâ€™s 116.88 high possibly being a Wave â€“a-.
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