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Wednesday March 7, 2007 - 13:06:41 GMT
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Forex Research - Mellon FX Daily - European. Edition

Mellon FX Daily 07:50 GMT

Key Points
• Market remains cautious about yesterday’s equity market recovery and JPY weakness.
• An extension of yesterday’s JPY weakness could be seen today, although volatility will likely return at some point in the days ahead.
• US ADP employment, Fed’s Beige Book, RBNZ announcement feature today.

Market Outlook

A tentative overnight session, with most Asian markets responding positively to yesterday’s rise in US/European equity indices and others, such as Japan, less impressed. The Nikkei opened higher but slipped back thereafter, closing down 0.47%. Likewise with the JPY, which has held on to most of the weakness secured yesterday, but no more than that. For now the market is merely viewing yesterday’s developments as corrective after the scale of the moves seen over the past week or so. Overall, this will probably turn out to be a fair assessment, as many market participants (in all asset markets) who were caught out by the speed of last week’s moves are likely to see such corrective developments as a second chance to get out of positioning. However, there may be more left in yesterday’s correction before this happens, with risk up to 117.50-80 on USD-JPY, 154.00-25 on EUR-JPY and 227.70- 228.00 on GBP-JPY. However, selling would be favoured on approaching such areas. Below 116.00-20 today on USD-JPY would be a setback to the recovery scenario.

EUR-USD was quiet yesterday, but should be able to recover a little if the JPY weakens and equities try and recover further – as should cable. However, upside is likely to remain limited by the positional overhang on EUR-USD and weakness could resume if market volatility returns in coming days.

The weekly US ABC consumer sentiment number was unchanged from the previous week at -1, suggesting that as yet there does not appear to have been any negative fallout from the recent stock market sell-off. -1 is only just shy of the 5-yr highs at +1 seen on several occasions in recent months.

Day Ahead
US – the Beige Book will be closely monitored to see what is said about the general state of economic activity, price pressures and labour demand, but significant revelations look unlikely. The Fed’s Moskow is also unlikely to unveil anything new in the way of thinking about economic and policy prospects. The market may take a look at the ADP measure of employment. However, after the problems of a couple of months back when the ADP wrongly led the market into expecting a soft payroll number, there may be a reluctance to read too much into it.

New Zealand – the RBNZ announce their latest policy decision this evening and a 25bp rate hike is widely expected by the market. The RBNZ has long been warning that the strength of household demand is a serious danger to CPI in the medium-term and there is still no sign of a slowing in activity. With the NZD in retreat, it could also be a good time tactically to conduct a tightening, so a hike seems likely. What the RBNZ signals about the future will be an additional factor for the market to consider.

Japan – money and bank lending numbers are released tonight. The outstanding level of bank loans remained solid last month after the sharp rise recorded in December, the latter being due in part to M&A activity. However, the JPY will remain primarily driven by the tone in equity markets.

Data/event EDT Consensus*

NO Manu output (Jan) m/m 09.00 +0.2%
DE Manu orders (Jan) m/m 11.00 +0.4%
US Mortgage apps – purchases w/w 12.00 +5.2% last
US ADP employment (Feb) 13.15 +100k
US Fed’s Moskow on econ outlook 18.00
US Beige Book for Mar 21 FOMC 19.00
NZ RBNZ rate announcement 20.00 +25bp
US Consumer credit (Jan) 20.00 +$7.0bn
JP M2 plus CDs (Feb) y/y 23.50 +1.1%
JP Bank lending (Feb) y/y 23.50 +2.0%
US Paulson speaks in China 01.30

Latest data Actual Consensus*
US ABC consumer conf (w/e Mar 4) -1 -1 last
AU RBA rate announcement unch unch
AU GDP (Q4) q/q +1.0% +0.5%
CH Unemployment rate (Feb, sa) 3.0% 3.0%
* Consensus unless stated

2005, Mellon Financial Corporation Note: Although obtained from sources believed by us to be reliable, Mellon Financial Corporation and its affiliates cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information upon which this report is based. This report does not purport to disclose the risks or benefits of entering into particular transactions and should not be construed as advice in any specific instance. The views in this report constitute our judgement as of this date and are subject to change without notice.
Ian Gunner 44 20 7163 5996 06.40 EDT Monday May 31 2005


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