User Name: Password:      Register - Lost password?

Forex News Blog
Back to The Headlines
Monday August 16, 2004 - 21:52:40 GMT -

Share This Story:
| | Email

Empire State Manufacturing Survey Slips To 15 Month Low

Daily FX Fundamentals 08-16-04

By Kathy Lien, Chief Strategist of

·Empire State Manufacturing Survey Slips To 15 Month Low
·Treasury International Capital Flow Data Indicates Rebound In US Portfolio Inflows
·Yen Rallies As Oil Prices Recede On Chavez Victory


Today was an extremely quiet day in the Eurozone with no economic data scheduled for release. The weak US Empire State Manufacturing Survey and strong Treasury International Capital flow data essentially negated each other’s short-term impact on the EURUSD. Basically what this equaled to was a completely dull trading day. Tomorrow should be different. We are expecting Germany’s monthly ZEW survey of economic sentiment and industrial production. The ZEW survey increased unexpectedly in the month of July on strong demand for German exports, which rose 3.6% in May. However, the ZEW is expected to come in much softer this month as exports decreased 5.8% in the month of June and oil prices continue to hurt the profits of German corporations. Industrial production for the month of June in the Eurozone is also expected to erase the gains made in May given shortfalls in Germany and France. Although these releases are very important, the day’s main focus will be on the US consumer price inflation report and US industrial production report.


After Friday’s significantly weak trade deficit, the dollar found some relief from today’s Treasury International Capital Flow data. Portfolio flows rebounded to $72bln in the month of June after dipping to an upwardly revised $65bln in the previous month. A significant portion of this increase is still a result of rising accumulation by foreign central banks, particularly Japan, who is the world’s largest foreign holder of US Treasuries. Encouragingly, for the first time since February, private investors increased their holdings of US equities. Overall, despite the widening current account balance, if this trend sustains, we may not have to worry about a current account financing crisis quite yet. However, the stronger TIC data only managed to reverse the Empire State Manufacturing Index related losses. The market had expected manufacturing activity to slow, but not quite by the extent that we saw today. The index declined from a downwardly revised 35.75 in July to 12.57 in August. This is the lowest level in 14 months. Only 28% of respondents reported improving conditions in August, compared to 46% in July. Lower consumer spending has caused the new orders component to fall by more than 50%. Although the report indicates that companies are hiring now, the index for the hiring outlook six months from now declined to 9.7 from 36.3. The same fate should fall upon Thursday’s Philly Fed survey. The market expects the index to fall from 6.1 to 30.5. We would not be surprised to see a dip into the 20s and once again, we blame this all on oil. Once we see a respite in oil prices, consumers would feel more comfortable increasing spending, helping the recovery regain its momentum. The only question is, when will oil prices reverse, if ever?


The British pound gave back some of the spectacular gains it made on Friday ahead of the RICS house price survey. The market expects the RICS survey to support the Bank of England’s argument that house prices have peaked and will continue to slow in the months ahead. Consumer spending, due out on Thursday is also expected to decline, adding to our case that after years of stellar growth, we are seeing the UK economy finally show signs of slowing. This is not say that the UK economy is going downhill from here, but stellar growth cannot last forever, nor can the Bank of England’s extremely aggressive tightening cycle. Wednesday’s release of the minutes from the August monetary policy meeting should provide further confirmation of our views.


The Japanese yen advanced against the dollar for the fourth consecutive trading day. The currency found some relief as oil prices receded following Venezuelan President Chavez’s referendum victory. The government held polls this weekend in an effort to prematurely end Chavez’s presidential term. There was an article in the Wall Street Journal this morning echoing our sentiments – that the oil induced economic slowdown is spreading around the world. Japan was the most recent country to be hit, with GDP growth slipping to 1.7% yoy in Q2. If oil prices do not reverse, we will continue to enter a soft patch in the global recovery.


Forex Trading News

Forex Research

Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."

Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.

Register To Test Your Amazing Trader

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 10 Sep 2018
AA 08:30 GB- GDP, Trade, Output
Tue 11 Sep 2018
AA 08:30 GB- Employment Decision
A 09:00 DE- ZEW Survey
Wed 12 Sep 2018
A 12:30 US- PPI
A 14:30 US- EIA Crude
A 18:00 US- Beige Book
Thu 13 Sep 2018
A 1:30 AU- Employment
AA 11:00 GB- Bank of England Decision
AA 11:45 EZ- European Central Bank Decision
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
AA 12:30 US- CPI
Fri 14 Sep 2018
A 08:30 GB- GDP
AA 12:30 US- Retail Sales
A 13:15 US- Industrial Production
AA 14:00 US- prelim University of Michigan

John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner,

Global-View Affiliate Program

We are starting an affiliate program to market some of our products.

Send me an email if you would be interested or if you know someone who would like to be an affiliate. Generous commissions payout for those accepted.

Put the word "affiliate" in the email subject line.

Contact us

Start trading with forex broker Markets Cube

Max McKegg's Daily Forex Trading Forecasts

Veteran FX Trader, Max McKegg, forecasts all the Major currencies and the Australasians; providing Daily and Medium Term Trading forecasts to subscribers, who include large Banks the world over, as well as individual traders in more than 30 different countries.

Request a TRIAL of Max's Forex Service.


Retail Forex Brokerage Changing!

Are you looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are more critical things to consider than you might have thought.

We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.

Our Best Brokers listing section includes:Forex Broker Reviews, Forex Broker Directory, Forex Broker Comparisons and advice on How to Choose a Forex Broker

If would like guidance, advice, or have any concerns at all ASK US. We are here to help you.

SEE Our Best Brokers List

Currency Trading Tools

  • Live rates, currency news, fx charts. 

  • Research reports and currency forecasts.

  • Foreign Exchange database and history.

  • Weekly economic calendar.

Directory of  Forex trading tools

Terms of Use    Disclaimer    Privacy Policy    Contact    Site Map

Forex Forum
Forex Trading Forum
Forex Forum + forex rates
Forex Forum Archives
Forex Forum RSS
Free Registration

Trading Forums
Currency Forum Guide
Forum Directory
Open Forum
Futures Forum
Political Forum
Forex Brokers
Compare Forex Brokers
Forex Broker News
Forex Broker Hotline

Online Forex Trading
Forex Trading Tools
Currency Trading Tools
Forex Database
FX Chart Points
Risk/Carry Trade Chart Points
Economic Calendar
Quicklinks to Economic Data
Currency Futures Swaps
Fibonacci Calculator
Currency Futures Calculator

Forex Education
Forex Learning Center
FX Trading Basics Course
Forex Trading Course
Forex Trading Handbook

Forex Analysis
Forex Forecasts
Interest Rate Forecasts
Central Bank Forecasts

FX Charts and Quotes
Live FX Rates
Live Global Market Quotes
Live Forex Charts
US Dollar Index Chart
Global Chart Gallery
Daily Market Tracker
Forex News
Forex Blog
Forex News
Forex Blog Archives
Forex News RSS
Forex Services
Forex Products
GVI Forex
Free Trials
FX Bookstore
FX Jobs and Careers
Jobs USA
Jobs UK
Jobs Canada

Forex Forum

The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.

Forex News

The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.

Currency Trading

Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by

Forex Brokers

The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.

Forex Trading

Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.

FX Trading

Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.

Forex Blog also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.



By using this website, you are agreeing to our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use, and Cookie Policy

Copyright ©1996-2014 Global-View. All Rights Reserved.
Hosting and Development by Blue 105