Friday March 9, 2007 - 05:15:59 GMT
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FX-Strategy - www.fx-strategy.com
Daily Analysis for USDCHFPrice:
Resistance: 1.2294 ... 1.2311 ... 1.2330 ... 1.2359
Support: 1.2252 ... 1.2239 ... 1.2205 ... 1.2180
Care â€“ but while 1.2239-52 supports there is room for a move to 1.2311 and maximum 1.2330-59
The 1.2157 level remained intact and the break above 1.2205 has led to further gains and there does still seem to be further upside risk. Support is seen at 1.2239-52 and while this holds the risk is higher to 1.2311 minimum and potentially to the 1.2330-59 area which should cap. From there we expect a reversal lower. Only above 1.2360 would see further gains to 1.2393 and possibly the 1.2436-66 area.
We havenâ€™t seen the decline to 1.2026-58 but we still feel there needs to be one new low before a recovery. Thus only above 1.2360-93 will trigger earlier gains above 1.2466 and 1.2505 to 1.2550-76 again. (March 9th)
With yesterdayâ€™s break higher we feel that we need be patient for a selling opportunity which we feel will come somewhere between 1.2311 and 1.2359 â€“ and we suspect the 1.2330-59 area. Stops should be placed above 1.2370. Only an earlier move below 1.2230 would imply direct losses back to 1.2152-57 and the 1.2108 low where a recovery should be seen.
We still feel there should be one more attempt lower and this should come from the 1.2311-60 area. Below 1.2230 confirms with an ultimate target to be determined but should be in the 1.1960-00 area. (March 9th)
ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS
Yesterdayâ€™s rally forces us to accept the 1.2108 low as the end of Wave v of Wave â€“a- and thus this move higher is Wave â€“b- and should be followed by a Wave â€“c- lower. A 61.8% retracement in Wave â€“b- lies at 1.2311 with a 66.67% retracement at 1.2330 and 76.4% at 1.2358.
If we then take a wave equality target in Wave c we get to the 1.2311 area with a 138.2% projection closer to the 1.2358 retracement level.
Thus watch these two areas and once established we can identify potential targets for Wave â€“c-.
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