Tuesday August 17, 2004 - 01:07:52 GMT
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FX-Strategy - www.fx-strategy.com
Forex: Daily Forecast for the U.S. Dollar vs Japanese Yen 17th August 2004Price 110.45
Resistance: 110.65 ... 111.00 ... 111.15 ... 111.45
Support....: 110.35 ... 110.00 ... 109.80 ... 109.40
Remaining below 110.60-70 for a decline down to 109.40-80
Recovery was seen yesterday from slightly below our 110.35 support and the subsequent resistance was lower also with a high seen at 110.98. We feel that early trading should recover to the 110.60-70 area but this should provide the limit on the day. We feel the 109.60-80 area a good buying opportunity with stops below 109.25. Alternatively any direct break above 110.70 would imply a retest at 111.00 and probably a move up to 111.35-45 on the day.
Although the first move today looks to be a corrective rally to the 110.60-70 area we feel this should provide a good selling opportunity for a move down to 109.80 minimum and possibly as deep as 109.40. However, this should limit the downside on the day. Only a direct break of 109.25 would begin to threaten an immediate decline down to 108.55.
Elliott Wave Comments:
16th August 2004
The failure for price to reach 112.46 takes the weight of probability off the scenario calling for a flat correction to 112.46. However, until the 110.40 level is broken cleanly there is still chance that Friday's dip was merely a Wave -x- within a Double Zig-Zag rally. However, we feel the decline on Friday came in 5 waves which has more bearish implications. However, where there is some ambiguity and the prior Wave b at 110.40 remains intact, it is likely we shall see some recovery higher at first.
Thus we need to see how this recovery develops to provide us with a better idea of the wave structure. Assuming this rally fails, any drop below 111.35-40 would imply further losses down to 108.55 and probably 107.60 as we revert to complete Wave -C- of a larger triangle.
(c) FX-Strategy Inc 2004
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